AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gains traction above 100-day EMA with bullish RSI momentum

The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory near 111.80 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as China's trade surplus grew more than expected at the beginning of 2026, driven by a significant surge in exports. 

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said on Tuesday that volatility in oil prices and the Middle East is a genuine challenge for the central bank. Hauser further stated that the response depends on the size and persistence of the price shock, which is very uncertain.

Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the Middle East conflict. Any signs of escalating tensions or a prolonged war could boost the safe-haven currencies such as the JPY and act as a headwind for the cross. 

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY trades at 111.79. The near-term bias is bullish as price extends well above the rising 100-day exponential moving average near 105.60, confirming a mature uptrend rather than a short-term spike. Spot holds firmly above the Bollinger middle band around 110.10 and works closer to the upper band at 112.50, signalling persistent upside pressure within an expanding volatility backdrop. The RSI at 65 stays in bullish territory but below overbought extremes, indicating strong momentum with room for further gains before signals of exhaustion emerge.

Initial support is located at the Bollinger midline and recent consolidation area near 110.10, followed by stronger support at 109.20, where prior range highs align with the lower half of the recent band structure. A deeper pullback would expose the 107.70 area, which coincides with the lower Bollinger Band region from late February and guards the 100-day EMA zone around 105.60. On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the current upper Bollinger Band near 112.50, with a sustained break opening the way toward the 114.00 region as the next upside target within the prevailing bullish trend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)