The Strait of Hormuz is almost silent, with zero ships entering in 24 hours, and oil tankers are playing the stealth game.
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⑴ As the Middle East conflict enters its second week, the Strait of Hormuz has become almost completely closed, with nearly all vessels except those related to Iran being prohibited from passage. Missile and drone attacks pose a deadly threat to passing ships. ⑵ Although Trump claimed that the war would "end soon," causing crude oil markets to plummet by more than 10% at one point, shipping companies, facing direct threats to personnel and vessel safety, are still taking extremely cautious measures, with shipping capacity trapped on both sides of the strait. ⑶ Ship tracking data shows that shipping into the Persian Gulf has come to a complete halt in the past 24 hours, with no vessels observed entering. Only two bulk carriers and a small number of Iran-related ships were observed leaving. ⑷ Due to signal interference and ships turning off their transponders, it is currently difficult to monitor navigation in real time. The whereabouts of many vessels remain hidden, and ships only restore their signals after leaving high-risk areas, reappearing in satellite data several days later. ⑸ Iran-related oil tankers usually keep their AIS signals off throughout their journey after leaving the Persian Gulf, only restoring them upon reaching the Strait of Malacca. Other vessels may also adopt similar concealment strategies, which means that the actual passage situation may be underestimated, and historical data will likely be revised upward later.
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