Saudi East-West pipeline receives emergency support, Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint, and the real test for crude oil lies ahead

⑴ After Trump hinted that the war with Iran might end sooner than expected, crude oil futures continued to decline, and market tensions temporarily eased. ⑵ Saudi Arabia is increasing the use of its East-West pipeline capacity, and this oil artery across Saudi Arabia provides an alternative export route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, playing a certain supporting role in stabilizing market supply. ⑶ However, BOK financial analyst Dennis Kissler warned that the real test for oil prices is far from over; the key lies in when, and whether, tankers and ships can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz. ⑷ He pointed out that a few weeks of production shutdowns at Middle Eastern oil fields usually do not put too much pressure on well structures, and short-term interruptions are still bearable. ⑸ But if the shutdown lasts for a month or longer, restoring this production could face severe challenges, and at that time, the supply gap will truly impact the market.