Pre-market activity is influenced by current spot oil prices

Market Update: March 10, 2026

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Following reassurances that the conflict in Iran would be brief, oil prices retreated from their two-decade highs yesterday. This marked the first decline since the U.S. and Israel began military operations in Iran about ten days ago. The dip in oil prices provided a boost to the markets at the start of the week, with the Dow rising by 0.50%, the S&P 500 up 1.38%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.38%.

Although trading started positively this morning, the momentum has since reversed, with the Dow down 0.32%, the S&P 500 off 0.28%, the Nasdaq slipping 0.15%, and the Russell 2000 falling 0.64%. Oil prices have climbed from their early morning lows but remain 4% lower for WTI and 5% down for Brent crude, now priced at $90.75 and $93.64 per barrel, respectively.

Earlier on Monday, oil briefly surged to $119 per barrel, surpassing the levels seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine four years ago. The last time oil reached such heights was in early 2008, when prices peaked at $147 per barrel before the global financial crisis hit later that year.

February Retail Sales Remain Strong

The National Retail Federation (NRF), the world’s leading retail trade group, released its February data in today’s NRF Retail Monitor. Both overall and core retail sales (excluding restaurants, vehicles, and fuel) increased by 0.3% month over month, a slight improvement from January.

Compared to last year, headline sales grew by 6.2% and core sales by 5.9%, building on January’s gains of 5.7% and 5.5%, respectively. Digital products led the way with a 1.0% increase, followed by clothing and accessories at 0.7%, and health and personal care at 0.5%. Home furnishings was the only category to decline, dropping 0.3% in February.

Business Confidence Softens

The NFIB Small-Business Optimism Index for February came in at 98.8, missing expectations of 99.5 and marking the second consecutive monthly decline after readings of 99.3 and 99.5. The index has generally hovered between 98 and 100, with a brief move above this range last summer and a recent low of 95.8 last April during the “Liberation Day” tariff changes.

Today’s Market Outlook

Investors are closely monitoring developments in Iran, especially the situation at the Strait of Hormuz, which typically sees 20 million barrels of oil pass through daily but is currently disrupted. Any changes in U.S. policy or strategy regarding Iran could have significant market implications. Reports from the Pentagon indicate that today will see the most intense bombing in the region so far.

In housing, February’s Existing Home Sales are projected to dip slightly to 3.86 million annualized units, down from 3.91 million in January—the weakest figure in 18 months. The last time sales were lower was in October 2023.

Oracle (ORCL) is set to announce its fiscal third-quarter earnings after the market closes. Analysts expect double-digit growth in both revenue and profit, and the company is aiming for its third earnings beat in the last four quarters. Oracle shares are up 1% this morning but remain down 21% for the year.

The Next Wave in Artificial Intelligence

The AI sector has already created significant wealth, but the most well-known companies may not offer the highest returns going forward. Lesser-known AI firms addressing major global challenges could present more attractive opportunities in the near future.