Oil prices are dropping, but gas prices remain high — here's the reason.

U.S. Gas Prices Expected to Stay High Despite Oil Price Fluctuations

American drivers should prepare for elevated gasoline prices in the coming weeks, even if crude oil costs remain steady, according to Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst at GasBuddy.

On Monday, global oil prices experienced significant swings, briefly reaching nearly $120 per barrel before falling back after President Trump suggested in a CBS News interview that the conflict with Iran might soon be resolved.

Despite a roughly 13% drop in Brent crude prices on Tuesday, bringing it down to $85 per barrel, the national average for gasoline climbed to $3.54 per gallon—an increase of six cents from the previous day, according to AAA.

Since the onset of the conflict, gas prices have jumped by over 50 cents per gallon. On February 27, just before the U.S. and Israel initiated strikes on Iran, the average price was $2.98 per gallon, according to GasBuddy data shared with CBS News.

De Haan told CBS News that motorists should anticipate persistently high gas prices for the foreseeable future. He noted that even if crude oil prices decline, gasoline prices are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels, partly due to seasonal factors that typically push costs higher each year.

“At this point, we can expect the national average to stabilize soon, likely within the next 24 to 36 hours, between $3.55 and $3.65 per gallon,” De Haan predicted.

Seasonal Factors and Summer Gasoline

As temperatures rise and more people take to the roads, demand for gasoline increases. Additionally, gas stations transition to costlier summer-blend gasoline, which is more expensive to produce and contains additives to minimize evaporation in warmer weather.

According to the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, stations are required to sell this summer blend from June 1 through September 15 each year.

As a result, consumers typically pay about 15 cents more per gallon during the summer months, reports CBS News Minnesota.

Crude Oil Price Volatility

Although oil prices dipped on Tuesday, crude remains about 20% higher than before the U.S. conflict with Iran began. Brent crude, the global benchmark, has risen from around $70 per barrel at the end of February to about $85. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, has climbed from $67 to roughly $80—a 25% increase.

Wayne Winegarden, a senior fellow at the Pacific Research Institute, commented, “Oil prices have been extremely volatile—falling today, surging yesterday. This makes it challenging for producers to set gasoline prices accurately.”

He added, “Until there’s more certainty, we’ll likely continue to see these unpredictable price swings.”

The Strait of Hormuz and Its Impact on Oil Markets

De Haan also noted that as long as security concerns persist in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are expected to stay elevated. This narrow passageway is critical, with about 20% of the world’s oil supply passing through it.

After Iran recently threatened to attack vessels, many tankers have avoided the strait. According to a Bloomberg tracker, the strait remained largely closed as of Tuesday, except for some Iran-linked ships.

De Haan told CBS News, “The market is desperately seeking clarity about what will happen next, such as whether the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. Relief will come once shipping resumes.”

President Trump helped ease some market fears by indicating the conflict could soon be resolved and promising increased protection for the strait.

Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, observed, “Markets are already anticipating the end of the conflict, even before it’s official. Oil prices dropping below $90 and rising stock markets suggest investors expect tensions to ease and supply disruptions to be limited.”

In a conversation with CBS News, President Trump stated that the U.S. “could do a lot” to keep the strait open and warned Iran against interfering with shipping. He also hinted that U.S. military involvement could help secure the passage and predicted a swift end to the conflict.

However, Iran’s foreign minister stated Tuesday that Iran is prepared to continue its actions as long as necessary and ruled out negotiations with the U.S.

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