How Citigroup Plans to Achieve 5-6% Y/Y NII Growth in 2026?

Citigroup, Inc. C expects its net interest income (NII) excluding markets to rise 5-6% on a year over year basis in 2026, following 6% growth in 2025 to $49.8 billion. Management sees business mix, loan growth and reinvestment income as the primary drivers.

2026 NII Outlook

 

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The outlook is supported by strong momentum in 2025. In U.S. Personal Banking, full-year NII increased 6% to $22.5 billion, supported by 5% growth in average loans. Wealth delivered even stronger performance, with NII rising 17% to $5.3 billion, while Services posted 12% NII growth to $15 billion, driven by higher deposit balances and improved spreads. In 2026, management sees strong loan growth in Cards and Wealth businesses driven by continued product innovation, solid customer engagement and its high-quality card portfolio.

Services Segment is particularly important to Citigroup’s NII story because it provides a large global operating deposit base. In 2025, average Services deposits rose 7% to $878 billion, including 6% growth in Treasury and Trade Solutions deposits, and 12% growth in Securities Services deposits. Management expects to witness similar trends in 2026.

Another major driver is reinvestment income. C’s 2026 outlook includes continued benefits from its investment portfolio as fixed-rate securities and derivatives roll into higher-yielding instruments. Management noted that around 30% of the securities portfolio is expected to mature in 2026, with proceeds reinvested into loans, cash, securities and other assets.

The bank expects declining interest rates to partially offset NII growth. Lower policy rates can compress deposit spreads and reduce yields on floating-rate assets. Citigroup also noted that changes in the yield curve and foreign exchange rates could affect results, given its globally diversified balance sheet.

Still, Citigroup’s path to its NII target rests on four clear levers: expanding cards and wealth lending, growing deposits in Services and Wealth, reinvesting maturing securities at higher yields, and managing through a lower-rate environment. If those trends hold, C’s 5-6% NII growth target looks less like an ambitious forecast and more like a continuation of the bank’s current operating momentum.

What Do C’s Peers Say About Their 2026 NII Expectations?

The two peers of Citigroup are Bank of America BAC and JPMorgan JPM.

Bank of America expects 2026 NII to rise 5-7% year over year, following 7.2% growth in 2025. Bank of America continues to benefit from a supportive rate backdrop, productivity gains from technology investments and the earnings resilience of a diversified franchise. 

JPMorgan expects NII to reach $103 billion in 2026, even as it builds against a lower rate backdrop. In 2025, NII was $95.9 billion. A part of the lift is likely to come from Markets NII. JPMorgan expects 2026 NII, excluding Markets, of $95 billion, implying Markets NII of $8 billion, an area that can be more variable than the core lending-and-deposit engine.

C’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of Citigroup have gained 57.9% over the past year compared with the industry’s growth of 31.8%.

Price Performance

 

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From a valuation standpoint, C trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.1X, below the industry’s average of 13X.

Price-to-Earnings F12M

 

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for C’s 2026 and 2027 earnings implies year-over-year rallies of 27.9% and 18.4%, respectively. The estimate for 2026 has been unchanged over the past month, while the estimate for 2027 has been revised upward during the same period.

Estimate Revision Trend

 

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Currently, C carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.