US recession chances climb as oil prices fluctuate

Recession Concerns Grow Amid Surging Oil Prices

Market participants are increasingly factoring in the risk of an economic downturn this year, with some anticipating that a recession could arrive sooner than previously expected. Over the weekend, Kalshi’s 2026 recession market surged to almost 31%, marking a 9.1-point rise, before easing to 28% by Tuesday.

The recent spike in oil prices appears to be fueling these heightened recession fears. According to The Wall Street Journal, oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel on Sunday—the highest level since 2022. U.S. crude futures also climbed by 13%, following their most rapid increase since futures trading began in 1983. The supply of oil has slowed in recent days, adding to market volatility.