The fiercest day of fighting, yet the market is betting the war will end soon

1. The United States and Israel launched what both the Pentagon and Iranian officials described as the most intense airstrike of the current war on Tuesday. The US Secretary of Defense called it “the day with the most aircraft, the most bombers, and the most attacks.” Residents of Tehran described the nighttime bombing as the fiercest wave so far, with two five-story residential buildings in the east being hit, and rescue workers still clearing bodies. 2. Despite the escalation of hostilities, global markets are betting that Trump will seek to end the conflict as soon as possible. Trump declared that the war is “very close to being over,” and the White House stated that once the operation achieves its objectives, oil prices will drop rapidly. Brent crude plummeted 11% on Tuesday, marking its largest single-day drop since March 2022, and the stock market rebounded from a sharp decline. 3. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran threatened to block Gulf oil exports unless the US and Israel stop their attacks. The White House reiterated that if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it will face severe retaliation, and once again proposed that the US Navy escort oil tankers. Currently, one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments by sea have effectively been disrupted. 4. Iran refuses to yield to Trump’s demand that the US select a new leader for the country, and hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei has assumed the position of Supreme Leader. Several senior Iranian officials have made tough statements, with the Speaker of Parliament saying they are “not seeking a ceasefire,” and the Foreign Minister stating that it is unlikely negotiations will resume. 5. The Israeli Foreign Minister stated that they do not seek an endless war and will coordinate with the US on when to end the fighting. Sources familiar with Israeli military plans said that Israel hopes to inflict maximum damage before the window for further strikes closes, operating under the assumption that Trump could end the war at any time. The US Congress is expected to soon receive a request for additional war funding.