Bitget UEX Daily | Fed Nomination Gains Traction; EIA Boosts Oil Forecasts; Geopolitical Easing Calms Oil (March 11, 2026)

I. Top News Highlights

Federal Reserve Developments

Key Senator Endorses Fed Chair Nomination Advancement U.S. Senator Thom Tillis has consented to initiate the confirmation proceedings for Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, regarding him as an exceptional nominee.

• Key Points: No additional responses needed from Warsh; the nomination might experience a temporary hold in committee; Tillis had previously pledged to obstruct such nominations.
• Market Impact: This development could expedite changes in Fed leadership, enhancing investor assurance in policy continuity, though possible postponements introduce added uncertainty.

Fed Governor Bowman Scheduled to Speak Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman is set to deliver a speech today, potentially centering on interest rate directions and economic projections.

• Key Points: Speech timing undetermined; may address inflation and employment statistics; interconnected with the forthcoming February CPI release.
• Market Impact: Should dovish indications emerge, it might mitigate concerns over elevated rates, spurring a rebound in risk-oriented assets.

International Commodities

EIA Substantially Raises Annual Average Price Expectations for U.S. and Brent Oil The U.S. Energy Information Administration has notably elevated its forecasts for WTI and Brent crude oil prices in 2026 and 2027 within its short-term energy outlook.

• Key Points: 2026 Brent projection increased to $78.84 per barrel (prior $57.69); WTI to $73.61 per barrel (prior $53.42); 2027 equivalents at $64.47 and $60.81 per barrel.
• Market Impact: Indicates persistent geopolitical risk premiums, which may bolster energy stocks but intensify inflation anticipations, indirectly constraining global equity markets.

G7 Directs IEA to Develop Oil Reserve Release Strategy The Group of Seven has instructed the International Energy Agency to evaluate the magnitude and procedures for releasing oil reserves if necessary to address supply disruptions.

• Key Points: Promoted by France as rotating chair; IEA board to deliberate today; Strait of Hormuz transit nearly halted, deteriorating market conditions.
• Market Impact: Supplies a potential supply safeguard, tempering pressures from oil price surges, contributing to steadier commodity markets and global growth forecasts.

Strait of Hormuz Blockade Disrupts Helium Supply Iranian conflict has resulted in the Strait of Hormuz blockade, shutting down Qatari helium operations and interrupting one-third of global supply.

• Key Points: South Korea depends on Qatar for 64.7% of its helium; shortage of vital semiconductor raw material; bromine supplies also concentrated in Israel.
• Market Impact: Elevates costs for chip manufacturing, possibly triggering volatility in tech stocks and magnifying risks from supply chain interruptions.

Macroeconomic Policies

Trump Calls on Iran to Clear Mines from Strait of Hormuz U.S. President Trump has urged Iran to promptly remove any potentially laid mines, or face severe military repercussions.

• Key Points: Current mining extent is limited, yet Iran possesses numerous small vessels and a mine stockpile (2,000-6,000 units); removal would represent a positive gesture.
• Market Impact: Intensifies geopolitical strains, but Iranian compliance could alleviate energy supply fears, benefiting rebounds in risk assets.

U.S. Government Urges Israel to Halt Attacks on Iranian Energy Infrastructure The Trump administration has for the first time explicitly restrained Israel from conducting further airstrikes on Iran's oil and other energy facilities.

• Key Points: Concerns over oil price spikes and Iranian retaliation; considered a "last resort," only if Iran acts first; disclosed by three informed sources.
• Market Impact: Limits escalation of the conflict, diminishing uncertainty in global oil prices, aiding stability in forex and stock markets.

U.S. Energy Secretary's Deleted Post Provokes Iranian Reaction The U.S. Energy Secretary posted and quickly deleted a message about naval escorts for tankers traversing the Strait of Hormuz, leading Iran to denounce it as falsehood.

• Key Points: No escorts have actually been provided; internal deliberations on initiation timing; Iran's Revolutionary Guard cautions that U.S. allied operations are within missile range.
• Market Impact: Underscores informational disarray, amplifying short-term market fluctuations, but the deletion might suggest de-escalation aims, alleviating safe-haven sentiments.

II. Market Review

Commodities & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: +0.35%, to $5,211/oz, continuously climbing supported by geopolitical risks.
• Spot Silver: +0.52%, price at $88.74/oz, tracking gold with lesser volatility, influenced by industrial demand.
• WTI Crude: -0.87% to $82.7/barrel, driven by Trump's statements moderating Iran conflict expectations, resulting in risk premium decline.
• Brent Crude: -0.51% to $82.86/barrel, drivers akin to WTI, affected by eased concerns over Hormuz supply.
• U.S. Dollar Index: -0.1%, price to 98.83.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: 24H up 1.05% to $69,969, continuous trend rebounding from lows, driven by restored risk appetite and ETF inflows.
• ETH: 24H up 0.54% to $2,034.
• Crypto Total Market Cap: 24H up 0.8%, total cap $2.46 trillion, driven by de-escalating geopolitical tensions and institutional demand resurgence.
• Market Liquidations: 24H total liquidations $2.97 billion, long positions $1.34 billion, short positions $1.69 billion.

• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: At current price $69,960, upside cumulative short liquidations up to $475.99M, far exceeding downside long liquidations of $33.75M; if price rises, could trigger large-scale short squeeze. Leverage clusters, especially 50x and 100x, mainly focused on $70,000-71,000 and $73,000-74,000 key levels, potentially magnifying volatility and cascade liquidation effects.
• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF yesterday net inflow $0.61 billion; ETH spot ETF net inflow $0.126 billion.
• BTC Spot Inflow/Outflow: Yesterday inflow $35.29 billion, outflow $34.61 billion, net outflow $0.574 billion.

U.S. Stock Indices Performance

• Dow Jones: Down 0.07%, closing at 47,706.51 points, continuous trend of initial surge followed by retreat, influenced by oil price sensitivity.
• S&P 500: Down 0.21%, closing at 6,781.48 points, key feature being divergence between tech and energy sectors.
• Nasdaq: Up 0.01%, closing at 22,697.1 points, driven by strong performance in memory and optical communication concept stocks.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Apple: Up 0.37%, boosted by new product launch expectations, but gains limited by overall market volatility.
• Amazon: Up 0.39%, bond issuance for AI expansion strengthens investor confidence.
• Meta: Up 1.03%, acquisition of AI platform Moltbook fortifies AI ecosystem positioning.
• Microsoft: Down 0.89%, broader tech sector pullback amid intensified AI competition.
• Google: Up 0.22%, introduction of multimodal model Gemini Embedding 2 enhances technological competitiveness.
• Nvidia: Up 1.16%, AI chip order growth, with Groq production increasing 70%.
• Tesla: Up 0.14%, EV market warming, but constrained by supply chain concerns.

Sector Movements Watch

Memory Concept Stocks Up Over 3%

• Representative Stocks: Micron Technology, up over 3%; Western Digital, up over 1%.
• Driving Factors: Anticipated memory supply shortages propelling demand in PCs and AI-related areas.

Optical Communication Stocks Up Nearly 6%

• Representative Stocks: Ciena, up nearly 6%; Lumentum, up nearly 5%.
• Driving Factors: 5G and data center expansions, benefiting from AI infrastructure investments.

Solar Energy Stocks Up Over 7%

• Representative Stocks: SolarEdge Technologies, up over 10%; Enphase Energy, up nearly 7%.
• Driving Factors: Support from energy transition policies, resurgence in renewable energy demand.

Rare Earth Concept Stocks Up Nearly 13%

• Representative Stocks: Critical Metals, up nearly 13%; NioCorp Developments, up nearly 4%.
• Driving Factors: Concerns over supply chain disruptions, surging demand for electric vehicles and tech manufacturing.

III. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Oracle - AI Orders Propel Earnings SurpassEvent Overview: Third fiscal quarter revenue and earnings per share both exceeded by 20%, cloud business revenue grew 44% year-over-year, infrastructure as a service (IaaS) revenue surged 84%. Remaining performance obligations (RPO) expanded 325% to $553 billion, primarily from major AI deals and client prepayments. FY2027 revenue guidance raised to $90 billion, 34% annual growth; FY2026 capital expenditure maintained at $50 billion, with first nine months spending doubling year-over-year. Expected no additional debt issuance through calendar 2026. After-hours shares rose up to 10%. Market Interpretation: Institutional sentiments generally positive, with Goldman Sachs and other analysts stressing strong AI order support for growth, raising target price to $180, maintaining buy rating. Investment Insight: AI theme continues to ferment, recommend positioning on dips to capture cloud computing expansion opportunities.
2. NIO - Achieves Initial Quarterly ProfitEvent Overview: 2025 fourth quarter operating profit 1.25 billion yuan, revenue 34.65 billion yuan up 75.9% year-over-year, gross margin 17.5%. Vehicle deliveries 124,800 units, fourth quarter gross profit 6.074 billion yuan up 100.8% sequentially. Cash reserves 45.9 billion yuan, up nearly 10 billion sequentially. 2026 first quarter delivery guidance 80,000-83,000 units up 90.1%-97.2% year-over-year, revenue 24.48-25.18 billion yuan up 103.4%-109.2% year-over-year. Market Interpretation: Morgan Stanley and others view it as a turning point in the EV industry, upgrading rating to overweight, target price to $15. Investment Insight: Robust cost control and delivery growth, EV market recovery may propel share price upward.
3. Boeing - Wiring Issue Delays 737 MAX DeliveriesEvent Overview: Discovered wire chafing marks on newly produced aircraft, traced to machining errors, postponing some 737 MAX deliveries. Repairs require several days per aircraft, affecting monthly overall progress, but annual target of 500 units unchanged. February deliveries 43 units, previous month 51 units highest since 2017. Market Interpretation: Citigroup analysts express concerns over supply chain stability, lowering target price to $250, neutral rating. Investment Insight: Short-term delivery pressures increase, suggest observing repair progress before entry.
4. BioNTech - Co-Founders Transition to New mRNA FirmEvent Overview: Ugur Sahin and Özlem Türeci to assume management at a new independent company by year-end, BioNTech contributing mRNA technology rights to support next-generation innovation. Supervisory board initiates successor selection to ensure smooth business handover. Intraday shares dropped nearly 18%. Market Interpretation: UBS institutional views mixed, acknowledging innovation potential but warning of leadership change risks, maintaining neutral rating. Investment Insight: mRNA field holds broad prospects, but transition period high uncertainty, advisable to avoid short-term.
5. Amazon - Plans At Least $37 Billion Bond IssuanceEvent Overview: Initiating USD and EUR bond offerings, targeting $37-42 billion, potentially one of history's largest corporate debts, for financing AI boom. Deal in 11 parts, terms 2-50 years, longest segment premium 1.55%. EUR portion up to 10 billion euros, earliest issuance Wednesday. Market Interpretation: Moody's downgrades to A2, but S&P negative outlook; Goldman Sachs favors AI investments, maintaining buy rating. Investment Insight: Financing strengthens AI positioning, substantial long-term growth potential, suitable for value investors.
6. CRCL - Stablecoin Adoption Fuels Strong Share ReboundEvent Overview: Circle Internet Group (CRCL) shares surged 86% over the past month, up nearly 10% on Monday, current trading at about $118, market cap $27.79 billion. Company 2025 full-year revenue $1.676 billion, benefiting from high USDC stablecoin reserve yields, expected GAAP profitability in FY2027. Post-IPO fluctuations, but strong fourth quarter performance triggered short covering, driving rebound from lows. Iran conflict elevates inflation expectations, further amplifying stablecoin demand potential in payments and AI agents. Company leads stablecoin market, USDC circulation dominant. Market Interpretation: Institutional optimism, Bernstein analysts raise target to $190, emphasizing stablecoin expansion potential in payments, commerce, and AI uses; Mizuho lifts target to $100, sees as high-beta crypto proxy; average analyst rating buy, 12-month target $122.25, despite cost rise concerns, growth outlook robust. Investment Insight: Stablecoin ecosystem continues expanding, recommend monitoring geopolitical risks and regulatory dynamics, position on pullbacks to capture crypto payment theme opportunities.

IV. Cryptocurrency Project Updates

1. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart shared data showing that as of end-2025, the top 30 holders of spot XRP ETFs hold about $211 million in shares, with Goldman Sachs as the largest at nearly $154 million. Seyffart notes only a "small portion" of investors visible in 13F filings, as "the vast majority do not submit 13F files." Another Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas speculates this mainly from XRP "super fans" rather than ordinary retail investors.
2. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan in latest memo reaffirms Bitcoin price potential to reach $1 million per coin. He points out that viewing Bitcoin as a gold competitor in the global value storage market clarifies its long-term potential. Current global value storage market size near $38 trillion, with gold about $36 trillion, Bitcoin about $1.4 trillion, under 4% share.
3. CoinDesk reports Strategy recorded its largest single-day STRC stock issuance in history on Monday, raising funds to purchase about 1,420 Bitcoin. That day STRC trading volume near $300 million, over twice the 30-day average of $124 million. Company also revised Omnibus Sales Agreement, allowing multiple agents to execute stock sales outside normal trading hours, enhancing financing flexibility for acquiring BTC via STRC.
4. Matrixport published analysis yesterday stating that since early February, Bitcoin has overall maintained sideways consolidation. Despite escalating geopolitical tensions, weakening U.S. employment data, plus global stock pullbacks (Korean stocks once sharply declined), Bitcoin still exhibits strong resilience. Even with weekend oil price surges, Bitcoin only retraced to near $66,000 support, and that level continues to provide support. The institution mentioned in prior daily that Bitcoin regaining strength and returning to $70,000-80,000 range possibility is rising. As markets gradually digest Iran conflict impacts, Bitcoin expected to shake off geopolitical disturbances, repairing toward higher trading ranges.
5. DeFi platform Aave triggered a rare $27 million liquidation event due to price oracle malfunction, observers believe related to risk assessment system updates, highlighting DeFi stability challenges.
6. Stablecoin boom may erode traditional bank profits, Jefferies analysts warn that digital dollar applications in payments and crypto markets will gradually drain bank deposits, forcing latter to seek more expensive financing.
7. U.S. senators propose stablecoin yield compromise scheme, attempting to break crypto clarity bill deadlock, this move may accelerate legislative process, providing regulatory clarity.
8. Aptos to unlock 11.31 million APT tokens worth $10.88 million on March 12, accounting for 0.69% of circulating supply, 69% supply already staked, may alleviate selling pressure but need to monitor market absorption.
9. Virtuals Protocol collaborates with Ethereum Foundation to propose ERC-8183 AI agent standard, and launches monthly $1 million reward program, token up 3.9%, aimed at incentivizing user participation.

V. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Key Events Preview

• U.S. February CPI YoY Release: 20:30 on March 11 (Wednesday) - Expected 2.4%.
• Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Speech: March 11 (Wednesday) - Timing TBD.
• Apple iPhone 17e and New iPad Air Sales Start: March 11 (Wednesday).
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims to March 7 Week: 20:30 on March 12 (Thursday) - Expected 21.3.
• Adobe Earnings Release: March 12 (Thursday), after market.
• U.S. January Core PCE Price Index YoY Release: 20:30 on March 13 (Friday) - Expected 3.1%.
• Japan PM Sanae Takaichi Meets Canada PM Mark Carney: March 13 (Friday) - Discuss Middle East situation.

Institutional Perspectives

Renowned investment bank analysts adopt a cautiously optimistic view on the past 24-hour market dynamics. Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end 2026 gold target to $5,400/oz, citing sustained demand amid geopolitical uncertainties, while J.P. Morgan forecasts a bullish $6,300/oz scenario driven by central bank buying and a weaker dollar. Forex.com highlights gold and Bitcoin testing key resistances like $5,200 and $75,000-$80,000, with WTI cooling on Trump's de-escalation remarks, potentially signaling a risk-on shift if DXY holds below 99.50. Michael Boutros from Forex emphasizes technical levels amid Iran tensions, noting USD breakout tests and gold's rally faltering post-spike. ING and Scotiabank provide varied gold averages of $5,190 and $4,100 for 2026, reflecting balanced outlooks. Investing.com notes oil surges from strikes but gold trimming losses, with Morgan Stanley warning of $130+ oil if Hormuz disruptions persist. Mike McGlone anticipates rising volatility, with Bitcoin's $100,000 as a potential ceiling and S&P 500 above 7,000 critical. Overall, analysts recommend monitoring CPI for Fed implications, favoring defensive assets short-term while optimistic on commodities and crypto midterm amid energy and AI themes.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search and verified by humans for publication only; it does not constitute any investment advice.