"BTC OG insider whale" agent: The Strait of Hormuz is the real battlefield, and risk assets will remain under pressure in the short term

BlockBeats News, on March 11, "BTC OG Insider Whale" agent Garrett Jin published a lengthy article stating that although the US and Israel's airstrikes against Iran were a tactical victory (destroying Iran's conventional forces, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei, etc.), they have fallen into a strategic deadlock. The Strait of Hormuz is the real battlefield, and it has been "soft-blockaded" (not physically closed, but due to the collapse of the insurance mechanism + Iran's asymmetric threats), resulting in a disruption of global oil transportation and a misjudgment of the duration by the market, causing oil prices to surge from $85 to $119.50.

Garrett Jin stated that the US wins every battle but is losing the entire war. There is no military solution, only diplomacy (possibly a US-China summit), otherwise it may be forced to deploy ground troops, getting stuck in a quagmire and causing global energy/economic chaos.

The optimistic scenario is that the Strait of Hormuz reopens, diplomatic measures show significant effects, and a ceasefire or other potential agreement is eventually reached. The pessimistic scenario (diplomatic failure and long-term closure) has no historical pricing template to follow. In any case, in the short term, crude oil, interest rates, and inflation expectations will push up the duration premium, and risk assets will remain under pressure until a reliable solution emerges.