Mitsubishi UFJ: Tonight's CPI is just an appetizer; the impact of the Middle East situation on energy prices will not become apparent until March.

Golden Ten Data reported on March 11 that Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group predicts the US core CPI for February will increase by 0.291% month-on-month and 2.484% year-on-year. The base effect is expected to contribute 0.23 percentage points to the year-on-year growth of core CPI, which is lower than the peak in January but still at a historically high level. Attention should be paid to high-weight items, including housing, transportation, and healthcare. Leading indicators show that the slowdown in month-on-month growth of airline ticket prices will be offset by the acceleration in month-on-month growth of used cars. Under normal fluctuations, owners' equivalent rent is expected to rebound month-on-month, but its growth may be offset by the slowdown in professional medical services and inpatient hospital services. In the base scenario, the market may expect the February CPI data to be in line with consensus expectations, so the specific content of the report will determine the market direction. If there are no negligible special one-off factors, even if the data meets expectations, it may trigger a slight sell-off of US Treasuries, as the market is nervous about the possible spillover effects of oil prices in the coming months.