Will S&P 500 Open Up Or Down On March 11? Here Is How Polymarket Traders Lean As Oil Swings And CPI Data Loom

The S&P 500 ended Tuesday's session down 0.21% at 6,781.48, after a volatile stretch driven by oil price swings and escalating tensions in the Middle East, with investors closely tracking developments around the Strait of Hormuz.

The Polygon-based Polymarket crowd is leaning bullish heading into Wednesday. The March 11 market shows roughly 62% of traders betting "Up" versus about 38% "Down," with early trading volume exceeding $20,000 placed on whether the S&P 500 will open higher or lower.

Why That Number Matters

Oil markets remain the biggest driver of sentiment. Crude prices surged earlier this week as the conflict with Iran threatened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint that handles roughly 20% of global oil shipments.

Energy prices dropped once more on Tuesday before rebounding, after Energy Secretary Chris Wright wrote in a now-deleted social media post that the U.S. Navy successfully escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt later said that was inaccurate.

At the same time, policymakers are trying to calm markets. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is considering the largest release of strategic oil reserves in history, according to a Wall Street Journal report, a move aimed at stabilizing crude prices and preventing a broader economic shock.

Investors are also awaiting U.S. inflation data due Wednesday, particularly after signs of a weakening labor market have grown in recent months. This could shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy and determine whether the recent spike in oil prices feeds into broader inflation pressures.

The Bull Case

Oil prices have retreated from their recent highs as governments weigh coordinated supply measures and markets digest signs that the conflict may not escalate further.

Corporate catalysts are also in focus. Oracle reported fiscal third-quarter results after the close on Tuesday, beating Wall Street estimates with earnings per share of $1.79 on revenue of $17.2 billion, and sending its stock up as much as 9% in extended trading. The software giant’s cloud and AI infrastructure growth remains a key gauge of enterprise tech spending.

At last check, S&P 500 futures were modestly higher, up 0.21% at 6,801.75.

How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Tuesday just slightly up at 6,796.56. The March 10 Polymarket bet resolved “Up” on $652,836 in trading volume, as traders scrambled in the last hour to place their bets. Till about an hour before markets opened, the market was at 1.8% odds that the benchmark index would open up. This quickly jumped to over 99% as premarket sentiment wavered.

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This article originally appeared on Benzinga.com