Trump isn’t responsible for the surge in oil prices. Simply announcing the end of the conflict won’t resolve the issue.

Gas Prices Surge Amid Middle East Conflict

On March 9, 2026, a man uses his credit card at a Boston gas station, reflecting the current spike in fuel costs. The White House maintains that these elevated prices are only temporary.

Government Promises Quick Relief

President Donald Trump has reassured Americans that the recent rise in oil and gas prices is a short-term challenge, necessary due to ongoing conflict, and that prices will drop sharply once the war with Iran concludes. On Thursday, Trump stated that fuel costs would "drop very rapidly when this is over." Energy Secretary Chris Wright echoed this optimism, suggesting that relief at the pump could arrive within weeks. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also described the current price surge as a passing issue.

Leavitt further explained, "Once Operation Epic Fury achieves its national security goals, Americans can expect oil and gas prices to fall quickly—possibly even lower than before the conflict began. This would also mean Iran can no longer threaten the U.S. or its allies with nuclear weapons."

Challenges to Lowering Oil Prices

Despite these assurances, returning oil prices to pre-war levels is not straightforward. The U.S. military must first secure the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for 20% of the world's oil supply. Iran has threatened to attack oil tankers in the strait and has reportedly begun laying mines, effectively restricting global oil movement during the conflict.

Even if the military meets Trump’s timeline of reopening the strait within a week, industry experts doubt that oil shipments and regional production will fully resume for at least a month, if not longer. This suggests that high oil prices—and, by extension, elevated gas prices—could persist for some time.

Securing the Strait of Hormuz

The U.S. military is actively planning to neutralize Iran’s capacity to target oil tankers. While specific strategies remain confidential, Leavitt emphasized the president’s willingness to act decisively. The administration has indicated that the Navy may eventually escort oil tankers through the strait, but this has not yet occurred. Increased mining activity by Iran could further complicate these efforts.

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the number of oil tankers passing through the strait has dropped to single digits or none at all each day over the past week, compared to about 50 per day before the conflict began. Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, remarked, "Words alone won't restore oil prices; reopening the strait is essential. Normalcy can't return while 15 million barrels per day remain blocked from the market."

Recovery Timeline: Months, Not Weeks

Oil prices have recently fallen on hopes that the conflict may soon end, dropping to around $80 a barrel after exceeding $100 earlier in the week. However, prices remain far from pre-war levels—oil was about $60 a barrel before hostilities, and U.S. gas prices, now averaging over $3.50 per gallon, were below $3 before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.

Luisa Palacios, former Citgo chairwoman and current managing director at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, noted, "A sustainable return to normal prices likely requires a credible end to Iran’s ability to disrupt maritime traffic." Homayoun Falakshahi, lead crude research analyst at Kpler, estimates that restoring typical traffic through the strait could take one to three months, after which oil prices might return to $60 a barrel.

The complexity of the conflict adds to the challenge. Even after the U.S. and Israel targeted Iran’s leadership, Iran may not immediately cease hostilities. Completely eliminating threats like mines and drones is unlikely, so naval escorts for tankers may be necessary for some time. Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital, pointed out that even if the strait reopens soon, the process of safely resuming tanker traffic could keep oil bottlenecked for a month or more.

Restarting Oil Production

Another complication is that roughly 7 million barrels of Middle Eastern oil production have been halted recently, as there is nowhere to store the crude. Restarting production is not instantaneous. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said the company could begin ramping up within days of the strait reopening, but full restoration could take one to two weeks, according to Bob Yawger, a commodity specialist at Mizuho. Production cannot fully resume until tankers are able to transport the oil, and storage facilities are currently full.

Market Uncertainty and Lasting High Prices

Many analysts believe that oil prices will remain elevated until there is clear, concrete information—not just official statements—about when and how tankers can safely navigate the strait again. Even after traffic resumes, the market may continue to price in a "risk premium" until investors are confident that Iran no longer poses a threat to shipping in the region.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration recently projected that Brent crude will stay above $95 a barrel for the next two months, before potentially dropping to $80 in the summer and $70 in the fall. These forecasts depend on how long the conflict and production disruptions last.

If oil prices remain high, gas could approach $4 a gallon and stay there until oil prices fall and remain low. In 2022, even after oil prices dropped by $20 to below $100, gas prices stayed above $4 for several months before declining. This situation may prove to be more than just a "little glitch," as President Trump described it.