The probability of a U.S. economic recession in 2026 drops to 28%
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Kalshi traders believe that the probability of an economic recession in the United States in 2026 is 28%, lower than the recent peak of 34%–36%. Wells Fargo stated that the service sector, demographics, and fiscal policy will support economic expansion, and unless there is a large-scale, sustained oil shock, the likelihood of a recession is low.
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