Netherlands: Robust expansion challenged by conflict threats – ING

Strong Start for the Dutch Economy in 2026

According to ING economists Bert Colijn and Marcel Klok, the Netherlands is heading into 2026 with robust economic momentum. This positive outlook is driven by better-than-expected GDP results and a stable job market. However, they caution that ongoing conflict in the Middle East could pose risks, particularly through disruptions in energy supplies and transportation. Provided the conflict remains brief and contained, they still anticipate Dutch GDP to expand.

Economic Growth Faces Geopolitical Challenges

The ongoing war in the Middle East has heightened uncertainty for the Dutch economic forecast, mainly due to its impact on global energy and shipping routes. The Netherlands, as a key logistics center and major energy importer, is especially vulnerable to these disruptions, and the duration of these challenges remains unclear.

Despite these headwinds, the Dutch economy has shown remarkable resilience in recent years. The country managed to recover swiftly from the pandemic, needing less government intervention compared to many other advanced economies, and saw a quicker rebound in GDP.

During the previous energy crisis, the Netherlands experienced higher inflation than its peers but only a slight dip in GDP. Unemployment levels stayed manageable, and targeted fiscal measures helped protect households from the worst effects, including during the 2022 energy shock. The economy avoided a prolonged recession and high unemployment, and even the trade tensions last year did not halt export growth.

Nevertheless, past resilience does not guarantee future stability. The Netherlands still faces vulnerabilities, particularly due to its very low gas reserves.

(This article was produced with assistance from an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.)