Options traders bet on bitcoin reclaiming $80,000 as inflation data steadies crypto markets steady despite Iran conflict

Bitcoin hovered near $70,000 on Wednesday as crypto markets found firmer footing after days of war-driven volatility, with options traders increasingly positioning for a rebound toward $80,000 even as macro risks lingered.

The tone improved after February U.S. consumer inflation came in exactly as expected. According to Wednesday's U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report, Headline CPI held at 2.4% year over year, while core CPI rose 0.2% month over month, a reading that would normally be welcomed by risk markets.

However, multiple analysts said traders are likely treating the report with caution because it captures price conditions before the latest surge in oil tied to the conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the U.S.

The data could leave the Federal Reserve in an awkward spot heading into its March 18 meeting, as inflation cooled on paper, the labor market has softened, yet energy markets remain volatile enough to threaten a fresh inflation pulse in the coming data.

Bitcoin’s resilience

Against that backdrop, bitcoin has avoided another major breakdown.

Analysts at QCP Capital said the asset had held up relatively well through the latest geopolitical shock, trading back near $70,000 after briefly slipping below $63,000 during the initial wave of panic selling. Bitcoin changed hands around $70,200 at press time.

In their view, recent price action still points more like stabilization than a clean risk-on restart, but longer-horizon holders continue to accumulate in the $60,000-to-$70,000 zone.

Options data also suggests traders are becoming less defensive. Nick Forster, founder of onchain options platform Derive.xyz, said bitcoin skew had rebounded sharply from deeply negative levels to positive territory, signaling that the market has moved away from aggressive downside hedging. He added that put selling has increased across options venues, a pattern that often points to expectations for stable or firmer prices.

The switch in options positioning has translated into growing bets on a move higher over the next few months as well.

According to Derive, current options pricing implies roughly a 35% probability that bitcoin rises above $80,000 by the end of June. Forster said that, after months of heavy selling and weak sentiment, traders now appear to be betting that the worst of the crypto drawdown may already be over.

Mixed conviction

Still, conviction is hardly one-way. Derive also recorded a record onchain bitcoin options trade worth more than $130 million, structured to profit if bitcoin drifts lower toward roughly $65,000 by late March. That kind of positioning suggests institutions are starting to scale activity onchain, but are still managing macro uncertainty rather than blindly chasing upside.

Other analysts also struck a cautious tone. Stephen Coltman, head of macro at 21Shares, said the CPI print matched expectations, but warned that a rise in next month’s inflation data is already "baked in the cake" because of the war and energy shock. He said what matters now is how the Fed reacts if higher inflation prints arrive in the coming months.

Macro sensitivity has become a defining feature of bitcoin’s current trading pattern. QCP noted that bitcoin is behaving less like a pure high-beta risk asset and more like a liquidity-sensitive macro instrument.

Kyle Rodda, senior analyst at Capital.com, added that the broader market remains hostage to headline risk in energy, while Michael Brown at Pepperstone said nearly every major asset is still trading tick-for-tick with crude.

The backdrop helps explain why bitcoin has stayed resilient without fully breaking free, per XS.com Senior Market Analyst Rania Gule. She said the asset’s ability to hold near $70,000 while equities and gold came under pressure hints at a slow shift in investor perception, with bitcoin increasingly acting as a hybrid asset rather than simply another tech proxy. But Rania also noted that the market remains in a transitional phase, not a settled new regime.

The result is a market that looks calmer than it did a week ago, but not yet comfortable. Bitcoin may be stabilizing, and options traders may be warming to $80,000 again, yet the path from here still runs through oil, inflation, and the Fed’s meeting next week.