War blocks the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf neighbors' exports are interrupted, but Iran becomes the only "unimpeded" oil exporter

1. Analysis of tanker tracking data shows that despite attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz by Iran-related forces, which have sharply reduced oil exports from other Gulf countries, Iranian crude oil continues to be transported through the strait at near-normal speeds. According to TankerTrackers, since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28, Iran has exported about 13.7 million barrels of crude oil; Kpler estimates that exports reached 16.5 million barrels in the first 11 days of March.2. Iran’s ability to continue exporting oil without interception stands in stark contrast to the US maritime blockade during military operations in Venezuela. Experts from consulting firms expressed surprise that the US did not initiate similar actions before this conflict. However, analysts warn that if the US seizes tankers linked to Iran, it could trigger more attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.3. Shipping experts point out that as long as Iran-related vessels continue to pass through the area, there is motivation to keep the Strait of Hormuz open; if the US seizes tankers, Iran may go all out to completely block the strait, such as by laying mines. The White House has not yet responded to whether it plans to target Iranian oil exports.4. Satellite images show that several very large crude carriers are still loading oil at Iran’s Kharg Island export hub. Before the attack on February 28, Iran anticipated US-Israeli actions, and exports in February rose to about 2.17 million barrels per day, with a historical high of about 3.79 million barrels per day during the week of February 16. Since the outbreak of war, at least six crude oil tankers have left Iran.