Arthur Hayes points to the trigger for the next Bitcoin surge.

• Arthur Hayes links Bitcoin to the expansion of global liquidity.
• The Federal Reserve could influence a new Bitcoin surge.
• Geopolitical tensions put pressure on markets and favor cryptocurrencies.

Arthur Hayes reiterated his argument that the main driver for a new Bitcoin price surge lies not only in the current price or geopolitical news, but also in global monetary policy. During an interview on the Coin Stories podcast, hosted by Natalie Brunell, the former executive explained that his market analysis remains focused on liquidity.

In the conversation, Hayes stated that he doesn't yet see the ideal time to increase his exposure to the asset. "If I had $1 to invest right now, would I invest in Bitcoin? No. I would wait," Hayes said during the interview.

The comment came at a time when Bitcoin was trading near $69.926, a level below the all-time high of $126.000 recorded in October. For Hayes, this pullback shows that the market is still going through a phase subject to new macroeconomic pressures, especially in the face of increasing international uncertainties.

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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Arthur Hayes' origin story
8:33 Bullish or bearish on Bitcoin
9:59 Institutions taking over Bitcoin?
11:52 Bitcoin price manipulation
13:26 What's holding…

— Natalie Brunell ⚡️ (March 10, 2026)

Among the factors to watch out for, he cited the escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. In the analyst's assessment, this type of conflict does not automatically boost Bitcoin. The key point, according to him, lies in the economic response that usually emerges in scenarios of greater fiscal and military stress.

Hayes argues that when governments increase spending and face budget constraints, the tendency is to resort to measures that end up increasing liquidity in the system. In his view, this movement usually benefits Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies that are more sensitive to global monetary flows.

“The longer this conflict drags on, the more likely the Fed is to have to print money to sustain the American war machine,” Hayes said. He believes this is the type of environment that historically favors price increases in the sector.

Next, he succinctly summarized the thesis he has been repeating for years. “Printing money is good for Bitcoin,” Hayes observed. “That’s when I’ll buy Bitcoin—when central banks start printing money.”

The executive also reinforced the idea that Bitcoin functions as a "liquidity alarm," reacting quickly to changes in the money supply. During periods of tightening, risk assets tend to lose strength. However, when central banks expand stimulus, the cryptocurrency market usually finds room to regain traction.