XRP stuck at $1.40: Buyback Announcement Overlooked While Sellers Dominate

Market Overview: Sellers Take Charge

Currently, the market is clearly favoring sellers. XRP experienced a 3.3% decline, dropping to $1.4108 after failing once again to surpass the resistance range between $1.43 and $1.45. This downward move was accompanied by a dramatic 74% surge in trading volume, underscoring the intensity of selling activity and the breakdown of short-term support levels.

What’s striking is that this bearish momentum persists despite positive corporate developments. For instance, Ripple recently announced a $750 million share buyback and was added to Mastercard’s new crypto partner network, yet XRP’s price remained unresponsive. Over the past 12 hours, XRP has fallen another 1.42%, continuing its downward trajectory and reflecting how leading altcoins are now largely influenced by the broader market’s direction.

The $1.40 level has become a crucial support zone. Analysts highlight that maintaining this level could pave the way for a rebound toward $1.45 and $1.55. However, if this support fails, the next significant levels to watch are near $1.33 and potentially as low as $1.00. The recent spike in trading volume confirms that sellers are currently steering the market.

Supply Dynamics and Investor Sentiment

On-chain metrics reveal a market dominated by negative sentiment among holders. An estimated 60% of XRP’s circulating supply is currently at a loss, amounting to over $50 billion in unrealized losses. This situation creates a psychological barrier: holders are hesitant to sell at a loss but are also unwilling to buy more, which intensifies selling pressure as many remain underwater.

Adding to the challenge is a significant supply overhang. Approximately 2 billion XRP are held by investors who bought between $1.58 and $1.60. These holders are likely to sell as soon as prices approach their break-even point, creating a heavy wave of sell orders just above the current price. This explains why XRP consistently struggles to break through the $1.50 resistance zone.

The token’s price has repeatedly rebounded from the $1.30 area since February, establishing it as a key support. Conversely, attempts to rally are consistently halted near $1.50. This sets up a critical scenario: a drop below $1.30 could trigger further selling from underwater holders, while a convincing move above $1.50 would be necessary to absorb excess supply and shift market sentiment.

Key Levels and Market Catalysts

All eyes are on the $1.40 support. Should XRP fall below this level, especially with the recent increase in trading volume, the path could open toward deeper support at $1.33 or even $1.00. Holding above $1.40 could set the stage for a recovery toward $1.45 and $1.55, but a decisive breakdown would confirm that sellers remain in control.

XRP’s price action is closely linked to Bitcoin’s movements, with a correlation coefficient of 0.84. XRP tends to amplify Bitcoin’s price swings by nearly 1.8 times. Therefore, if Bitcoin drops below $60,000, XRP is likely to follow suit, regardless of any positive news for Ripple. The recent rejection at $1.45 and subsequent decline further demonstrate XRP’s sensitivity to the overall crypto market’s risk appetite.

Looking further ahead, regulatory changes such as the CLARITY Act and Ripple’s pursuit of a banking license could have a transformative impact. If enacted, the CLARITY Act would clarify XRP’s regulatory status, and a banking charter could integrate Ripple more deeply into traditional finance, potentially driving the token toward the $4 to $5 range. However, these factors are not currently influencing price action. For now, the market’s direction hinges on the battle at $1.40 and Bitcoin’s momentum.