Iran oil shock splits the world as exporters pocket windfall and importers buckle

Nearly two weeks into the Iran war, as oil prices surge and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, a clear pattern is emerging in global markets as energy exporters prosper while import-dependent economies count the cost.

On one side, Gulf states and energy exporters see higher prices, though sharply curtailed production means the revenue windfall is less straightforward than the headline price surge implies.

On the other, energy-hungry economies across Asia and Europe are facing a brutal squeeze of higher import bills, rising inflation and tumbling stock markets.

The scale of the divide is laid bare by CountryETFTracker's Iran War Market Monitor, which ranks countries by their energy trade balance as a share of GDP.

The most exposed economies are clustered in Asia. Thailand carries an energy deficit equivalent to 7.4% of GDP, the worst in the tracker, followed by South Korea at 5.7%, Singapore, Vietnam and Taiwan.

Japan, India and Turkey are not far behind.

Europe's position is less acute but still uncomfortable.

Every major economy on the continent is a net energy importer. Greece is the most exposed at 2.4% of GDP, followed by Italy at 2.0%, Spain at 1.8%, and France and Poland at 1.7%.

Germany, the continent's industrial engine, runs a deficit of 1.5%.

The winners of the oil shortage

At the other end of the scale, the Gulf's oil exporters could reap enormous gains.

Iraq leads the world with an energy surplus of 40.8% of GDP, meaning oil revenues are almost half the entire economy.

Qatar follows at 32.4%, the UAE at 17.6%, Saudi Arabia at 15.9% and Algeria — though not a Gulf exporter — is at 15.6%.

For each of them, every dollar added to the oil price flows straight into export revenues, state budgets and sovereign wealth funds.

Norway is the one European nation sharing in that good fortune, with an energy surplus of 19.1% of GDP, the third-largest in the world.

Russia, too, stands to benefit financially, with a surplus of 9.1% of GDP, though sanctions complicate its ability to fully capitalise.

The United States is a net exporter, but its surplus is modest enough that the picture there is more mixed.

Energy exporters outperform as oil prices surge

Since the start of the crisis on 28 February, whether a country exports or imports energy has quickly become one of the most powerful drivers of equity market performance, and the divergence is both sharp and consistent.

Among exporters, Saudi Arabia's stock market has gained 2.5% since hostilities began, while Norway's is up 1.1%. For importers, losses deepen the further down the energy-deficit spectrum you go.