Asian markets plummet as oil plummets to $100 amid fears of a prolonged war.

• Asia-Pacific markets fall as oil surpasses $100.
• Tensions in the Middle East are putting pressure on the global economy and stock markets.
• Investors are monitoring the S&P 500 today and the risk of recession.

Asia-Pacific markets opened sharply lower on Friday, reflecting escalating tensions in the Middle East and a significant jump in oil prices. The possibility of a prolonged conflict has raised concerns about disruptions to the global energy supply and rekindled fears of a global economic slowdown.

The move came after statements by Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. In a speech on Thursday night, he stated that the Strait of Hormuz — one of the most important routes for oil transport on the planet — should remain closed and that the country could escalate the conflict if the war continues.

The commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy, Alireza Tangsiri, reinforced the threat on social media by warning of "the hardest blows against the aggressor enemy."

The geopolitical escalation boosted oil prices. Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged 9,22%, closing at $100,46 per barrel, surpassing the $100 mark for the first time since August 2022. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude advanced 9,72%, closing at $95,73.

According to Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital, commodity prices tend to remain high in the short term. He explained in an interview with the program "Squawk Box Asia" that the main variable for the markets is the risk of disruptions in oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite this, the manager believes the situation could normalize throughout the year. "In December, the supply [of oil] will be better, it will be greater, so if you can get to December, you can buy oil much cheaper."

Analysts at Goldman Sachs project that Brent crude will average $98 per barrel between March and April, about 40% above the average recorded in 2025. If the flow of oil through the strait is interrupted for a month, the bank estimates that the average price could reach $110 before gradually declining throughout the year.

Meanwhile, Asian markets reacted negatively. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index fell about 0,3% in early trading.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 retreated while the Topix index fell 1,4%. Honda shares came under heavy pressure after the automaker projected its first annual loss in nearly seven decades.

In South Korea, the Kospi index fell nearly 3%, while the Kosdaq registered a drop of close to 2%. In Hong Kong, futures indicated a negative opening for the Hang Seng.

In the United States, the mood was also cautious. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost almost 740 points in the previous session and closed below 47.000 for the first time in 2026. The S&P 500 index ended today down 1,5%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1,8%.

In the Kalshi forecasting market, bets on a US recession rose to 32%, the highest level of the year.

Investors are also awaiting important inflation data. Economists project that the US personal consumption expenditures price index rose 2,9% year-on-year in January, with the core indicator accelerating to 3,1%, figures that could influence upcoming monetary policy decisions.