Two newly created addresses bet $10,100 on Netanyahu stepping down

According to monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, in the past day, 2 new addresses have placed bets on "Netanyahu will step down before ___", with a total open position of $10.1k. Currently, the probability of stepping down within the year is 47%.

After the war expanded, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is in a position domestically that lacks effective checks and balances. Although polls show that his ruling coalition may face challenges in elections, the wartime atmosphere has significantly compressed the space for parliamentary opposition, and even long-term critics such as former Prime Minister Yair Lapid have publicly stated that in the face of the Iranian threat "there is no ruling coalition or opposition, we are all united together."

With the phased resolution of the Gaza hostage issue by the end of 2025, large-scale domestic protests have significantly diminished, shifting focus to post-war reconstruction and economic recovery. Against this backdrop, Netanyahu has successfully portrayed himself as an irreplaceable wartime leader, positioning the conflict as an "existential war" and a "historic victory." His leadership has gained 53% trust support in polls, while overall support for actions against Iran is as high as 73%-94%.

Note: Based on the trader's past trading profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but engages in profit-taking or stop-loss at certain points after opening positions.

Accounts:
0xd3481a261f3ee307bf821a1d7a66a79bb8b6d759
0x1890f3de419014c80293f7e93fb06162a0b0f813

Open position: $10.1k
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