PLTR to $40 - 3,000% rallies do not end with a gentle correction

TradingView2026/03/13 08:42

By:TradingView

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SYMBOL: NYSE:PLTR | DIRECTION: SHORT | TIMEFRAME: WEEKLY
Published: March 2026

Three thousand percent. From the 2022 lows to the highs, Palantir Technologies rallied over three thousand percent. And the crowd? They are still buying the dip. They are still posting rocket emojis. They are still telling each other this is “just a healthy pullback.” It is not. The weekly chart is screaming. Nobody is listening. Perfect.

On the above weekly chart price action has broken market structure after an historic parabolic advance. The bearish divergence signal that has now confirmed is not subtle, it’s the kind of divergence that ends secular moves, not corrects them. A number of reasons now exist to be short / open Put calls, or at the very least take profit. They include:

1) Bearish divergence confirmed on the weekly chart. The Divergence Consensus indicator has printed a ‘Bear Confirmed’ signal at the highs. Price made higher highs while multiple oscillators refused to confirm. This is not a warning. This is a verdict. On a weekly timeframe, after a 3,000% advance, this signal carries the weight of every over-extended rally that came before it.

2) Broken market structure. The ascending channel that defined the entire rally from the 2022 lows has been decisively broken to the downside. The green trend channel on the chart, the one that held for over two years, is gone. Former support is now resistance. This is not a retest. This is a regime change. When parabolic structures break, they do not consolidate politely. They collapse.

The Gaussian channel (below) makes the change in market structure more visible.

3) RSI rejection at five-year resistance. The RSI on the weekly chart has been contained within a rising support and resistance channel for five years. In March 2026, RSI broke out above this channel and was immediately rejected. That breakout is now confirmed resistance. A failed RSI breakout on this timeframe, combined with a bearish divergence signal, is about as technically damaging as it gets. The momentum is gone. The oscillator knows it before the crowd does.

4) The 3,000% measured move is complete. From the 2022 lows near $6 to the highs above $125, the measured move on the chart reads 197.86 points, a 3,083% gain from the floor. Moves of this magnitude do not pause and continue. They exhaust. They reverse. The energy required to sustain a parabolic advance increases exponentially with each leg higher, that energy is now depleted. The chart is telling you this in every way it knows how.

5) Crowd psychology is euphoric. Palantir has become a meme. A cult stock. The AI narrative has convinced an entire generation of retail investors that valuation does not matter, that the only direction is up, and that anyone selling is a fool. This is not analysis. This is religion. And religious conviction in financial markets has a 100% failure rate over a long enough timeline. When the last sceptic has been converted, there is nobody left to buy. That moment has arrived.

Targets
1st target: $55, the first significant horizontal support from the mid-2024 consolidation zone. Expect a dead cat bounce here. The crowd will call it “the bottom.” It will not be.

2nd target: $30, the breakout level from the 2023–2024 base. Former resistance, now the logical support retest. This is where the measured move from the broken ascending channel points. A 80%+ decline from the highs. The crowd will be in disbelief. They always are.

3rd target: $22–$27 support band, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the entire 2022–2025 rally. If macro conditions deteriorate and the AI narrative unwinds, this level is not a fantasy. It is where the structure points.

What about the upside?
A weekly close back above $190, reclaiming the broken market structure and the ascending channel invalidates the bearish thesis. Above that level, the bears have it wrong and the trend resumes. Until that happens, the burden of proof is on the bulls. And right now, their only argument is “AI will change everything.” Perhaps. But the chart does not trade narratives. It trades structure. And the structure is broken.

The crowd / Conclusions
Go to any PLTR discussion board right now. Count the rocket emojis. Count the “buy the dip” posts. Count the number of people who bought above $100 and are now averaging down into a broken weekly structure with confirmed bearish divergence. This is not investing. This is hope dressed up as strategy, and hope is not a risk management tool.

Three thousand percent rallies do not end with a 20% correction and a resumption of the trend. They end with capitulation. With volume. With the same people who swore they would never sell, selling. We are not there yet, which means there is further to fall.

Trade active from between $160 and 170 regions.

Ww

2 day Gaussian channel

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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PLTR to $40 - 3,000% rallies do not end with a gentle correction

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