Caixin Futures Energy and Chemical Market Dynamics: Geopolitical Risks Dominate, Oil Prices Fluctuate at High Levels

⑴ In terms of crude oil, Iran's new leader made tough remarks, stating that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed and that new fronts will be opened if necessary. The frequency of attacks on Middle Eastern infrastructure and oil facilities has increased, coupled with production cuts by oil-producing countries, keeping the situation tense. Upstream fuel shortages have prompted some oil and chemical companies to plan to reduce production loads, driving short-term market sentiment. Prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly. ⑵ Regarding fuel oil, Middle Eastern facilities have been attacked and oil-producing countries have cut production, while domestic high-sulfur fuel oil imports are highly dependent, with Iranian high-sulfur fuel oil accounting for 20% of domestic imports. The supply gap is difficult to recover in the short term, so prices are mainly expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly. ⑶ For glass, the North China market has recently seen overall good production and sales, with midstream mainly picking up goods. This week, inventory decreased by 4.76% compared to last week. The "golden March and silver April" peak season expectations support prices, which are expected to fluctuate and run strong. ⑷ Regarding soda ash, the domestic soda ash market trend stabilized today, with downstream mainly replenishing inventory as needed. Production remained at a high level during the week, but strong energy costs provided support. The driving force is limited, so wide fluctuations are expected. ⑸ For caustic soda, some companies in the Shandong liquid caustic soda market continued to raise their quotations today. Tight supply of major raw materials has prompted relevant companies to plan to reduce loads, and strong price increases are seen under favorable export conditions. In the short term, it is necessary to track the impact of geopolitics on chemical supply, and the market is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias. ⑹ Regarding methanol, the spot market trading atmosphere was average today, and futures prices retreated slightly after surging. Both port and plant inventories declined, and international plant capacity utilization rates dropped significantly. Geopolitical conflicts have caused delays and reductions in imported supplies, and prices are mostly influenced by macro sentiment, entering a phase of wide fluctuations.