USD/CAD: Range trading holds above 1.37 – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that the Canadian Dollar is sliding on weaker Canadian employment data and geopolitical concerns, even as US data also softens. They see policy decisions from the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve as key event risks, but expect no rate changes. Despite recent CAD losses, they judge downside risks limited while the USD/CAD consolidation between 1.3525 and 1.3760 persists.

CAD pressured but downside seen limited

"The CAD is sliding into the weekend, reflecting a combination of anxiety about the developments in the Middle East on the one hand and much weaker than expected Canadian employment data on the other."

"CAD losses today are deviating sharply from our FV estimate but short-term US-Canada spreads have widened after the Canadian jobs data which will see the estimated equilibrium move higher Monday, all else equal."

"The degree of stretch is still significant, however. Correlations are generally weak between the CAD and key factors as equity market volatility is offset by higher crude prices. Markets will have to keep balancing these risks in the short run but we think the CAD still offers some fundamental value above the 1.37 area."

"Policy decisions in Canada and the US Wednesday are the prime event risks for the week ahead. Neither the BoC nor the Fed is expected to change policy rates but the meetings may cool activity to some extent as markets await guidance on the policy outlook."

"CAD technical signals are mixed. The USD is ending the week on a strong note and pushing above the 40-day MA resistance (1.3658) but a weak/technically bearish weekly signal for USD/CAD last week (bearish outside range) remains intact and longer run trend oscillator signals are aligned negatively for the USD. Look for more range trading as the broader consolidation (resistance at 1.3750/60, support at 1.3525/30) remains intact. "

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)