Do Stocks Go Up After Thanksgiving?

Do Stocks Go Up After Thanksgiving?

<p><strong>Do stocks go up after Thanksgiving</strong> is a common question for investors who track calendar seasonality. This article explains the event windows around the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday (the short trading week, the Friday half-day, and the subsequent weeks through year-end), summarizes historical evidence, reviews proposed explanations, and describes how traders and long-term investors might think about the pattern while emphasizing limitations and data caveats.</p> <p>As of 2026-01-22,据 MarketWatch 报道，seasonal patterns around Thanksgiving continue to attract attention among market commentators and retail investors. The material below combines published seasonality research with practical notes relevant to portfolio managers and everyday investors.</p> <h2>Background and definition</h2> <p>Researchers and market commentators examine several related event windows when asking "do stocks go up after Thanksgiving":</p> <ul> <li>Individual trading days around the holiday (the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, Thanksgiving Thursday when markets are closed, and the Friday after — commonly called Black Friday, which is a half trading day).</li> <li>Thanksgiving week — the sequence of trading days that week (often a short week with reduced trading hours).</li> <li>The Monday after Thanksgiving (often tied to retail-oriented terms like Cyber Monday).</li> <li>The multi-week stretch from post-Thanksgiving through the end of the calendar year (which may overlap with the Santa Claus rally and broader Nov–Jan seasonality).</li> </ul> <p>U.S. market calendar features that shape behavior include a full-day market holiday on Thanksgiving Thursday and shortened trading on that Friday (a half-session). The shortened schedule typically reduces intraday liquidity and can change how large institutions and retail traders execute orders that week.</p> <h2>Historical empirical evidence</h2> <p>Broadly speaking, multiple analyses and seasonal trackers report that Thanksgiving week and the days immediately after tend to show modest positive average returns for major U.S. indices. The magnitudes are small relative to daily volatility, and win rates (the frequency of positive returns) are typically above 50% but vary by sample and index.</p> <p>Many sources summarize the effect in quantitative terms: average weekly returns in the Thanksgiving window commonly fall in the low tenths of a percent (for example, ~0.1% to ~0.5% over a week), while win rates are often reported in roughly the 60%–80% range depending on the period and index. Different studies show variation across decades and market regimes; some find a stronger pattern pre-1990 while others note persistence in recent decades. As of 2026-01-22,据 Investopedia 报道, commentators continue to describe the effect as present but modest and sample-dependent.</p> <h3>Thanksgiving week (short-term)</h3> <p>In the narrow short-term window, historical analyses commonly highlight two day-level tendencies:</p> <ul> <li>Historically positive performance the trading day immediately before Thanksgiving (often a relatively strong Wednesday) in many samples.</li> <li>Modest positive returns on the Friday after Thanksgiving (often a half-session), though results for the Friday and Monday can be mixed across different studies and subperiods.</li> </ul> <p>Aggregate week statistics vary by sample: many seasonality trackers report that Thanksgiving week posts positive weekly returns more often than not, but the absolute average magnitude is small (commonly a few tenths of a percent). Trading volumes are typically lower during the short week, which can accentuate price moves caused by smaller flows.</p> <h3>Black Friday and Cyber Monday</h3> <p>Black Friday — the shortened trading day after Thanksgiving — sometimes shows modestly positive returns in intraday and half-day studies. Cyber Monday, while primarily a retail sales concept, is also part of the immediate post-holiday window traders watch. Historical results for Cyber Monday are more mixed: some analyses show a weak or neutral equity performance that day, while other studies find modest positive returns when the wider seasonal pull into December has already begun.</p> <p>The linkage to retail spending is important: strong Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales figures can support gains in retail and consumer discretionary names, while weak spending headlines may pressure those same sectors. As of 2026-01-22,据 Yahoo Finance 报道, retail sales releases tied to the Thanksgiving weekend remain a near-term input for sector-focused positioning.</p> <h3>Post-Thanksgiving to year-end (seasonal continuation)</h3> <p>Many seasonal narratives describe a progression: a modest post-Thanksgiving lift that feeds into stronger November and December performance, culminating (in some years) with the Santa Claus rally — a short late-December run of positive returns through early January. Studies that examine the Nov–Jan window often find above-average win rates and positive mean returns, though magnitudes and timing vary by decade and market regime.</p> <p>When asking whether "do stocks go up after Thanksgiving," it is important to decide which horizon you mean: a multi-week bullish continuation from Thanksgiving into December is a different phenomenon from a one-day move on the Friday after the holiday.</p> <h2>Explanations and proposed drivers</h2> <p>Researchers and commentators propose several complementary drivers for the observed Thanksgiving-week effect:</p> <ul> <li><strong>Holiday sentiment and the “holiday effect”:</strong> Positive consumer and investor sentiment around holidays may encourage buying, or at least a temporary reduction in selling.</li> <li><strong>Lower trading volumes and liquidity:</strong> With many market participants taking time off, thinner liquidity can amplify price moves from relatively small flows.</li> <li><strong>Retail sales signals:</strong> Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending data act as near-term signals for consumer-oriented sectors — strong sales can boost retail and discretionary stocks.</li> <li><strong>Tax-loss harvesting and end-of-year rebalancing:</strong> Portfolio adjustments late in the year, including tax-related selling earlier in December, can interact with November flows and create apparent seasonality.</li> <li><strong>Institutional positioning:</strong> Managers may reduce trading activity the short week and then re-establish positions afterward, producing net flows into equities.</li> </ul> <p>These mechanisms are not mutually exclusive; empirical tests often cannot isolate a single causal channel. As a result, when answering "do stocks go up after Thanksgiving," it is more accurate to say that several plausible market frictions and calendar-linked behaviors combine to produce a modest and inconsistent seasonal tendency.</p> <h2>Sector and market-cap differences</h2> <p>The Thanksgiving-week effect is not uniform across the cross-section of stocks. Empirical work and seasonal trackers note differences by sector and market capitalization:</p> <ul> <li><strong>Consumer discretionary and retail:</strong> These sectors can be more sensitive to Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales results and sometimes outperform in the immediate window if consumer data is strong.</li> <li><strong>Technology:</strong> Tech has at times benefited from seasonal optimism and year-end reallocation but also can vary with earnings and macro news.</li> <li><strong>Small caps:</strong> Some studies show small-cap indices (e.g., Russell 2000) exhibiting stronger seasonality or different timing versus large-cap indices, though results are mixed.</li> <li><strong>Defensive sectors:</strong> Utilities and some financials may lag during the short holiday stretch in certain samples.</li> </ul> <p>Sector-level behavior highlights that asking simply "do stocks go up after Thanksgiving" obscures heterogeneity across industries and capitalization buckets.</p> <h2>Trading strategies and practical applications</h2> <p>Traders and systematic strategies sometimes try to exploit the Thanksgiving-week pattern. Common approaches include:</p> <ul> <li>Short-term buy-and-hold for the week surrounding Thanksgiving (enter before the holiday, exit after the Monday or end of the week).</li> <li>Options-based tactics (calendar spreads or covered calls) to capture modest upside with defined risk, or iron condors to sell premium around potentially lower volatility in the short week.</li> <li>Sector rotation into consumer and retail names if Black Friday/Cyber Monday data are positive.</li> <li>Multi-week seasonality trades that target the Nov–Jan window rather than a single-day exposure.</li> </ul> <p>Practical considerations that often limit implementability include transaction costs, bid-ask spreads (which can widen in low-liquidity periods), slippage on thin half-day trading, taxes, and the potential for large macro surprises (Fed decisions, geopolitical events, earnings gaps) that overwhelm any seasonal bias. For exchanges and trading infrastructure, consider using reputable venues; when referencing an exchange, Bitget is a recommended option for users seeking a regulated platform and diverse order types. If storing crypto or tokenized exposures as part of multi-asset approaches, Bitget Wallet is the preferred wallet in this guide.</p> <h2>Statistical robustness and caveats</h2> <p>Several important caveats apply when interpreting the Thanksgiving effect:</p> <ul> <li><strong>Small effect size:</strong> Average returns attributed to the holiday window are small relative to normal daily volatility; single adverse events can erase gains.</li> <li><strong>Sample dependence:</strong> Reported magnitude and even sign can change by sample period, index choice, and start/end dates.</li> <li><strong>Data-snooping and publication bias:</strong> Many calendar anomalies have been documented after the fact, and repeated testing increases the chance of false positives.</li> <li><strong>Regime shifts:</strong> Market microstructure evolution, algorithmic trading, and changing investor composition can weaken historical patterns over time.</li> </ul> <p>Because of these limits, the claim that "do stocks go up after Thanksgiving" is best read as an empirical observation about historical tendencies, not a robust, exploitable guarantee.</p> <h2>Empirical studies and notable findings</h2> <p>Notable sources that discuss the Thanksgiving-week effect include seasonal guides (Stock Trader's Almanac), financial media summaries (MarketWatch, Yahoo Finance, The Motley Fool), and educational resources (Investopedia). Academic and industry researchers have also tested holiday calendar anomalies using indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000.</p> <p>To keep the discussion time-stamped: 截至 2026-01-22，据 Morningstar 报道, recent decade analyses show that the Nov–Jan seasonal window retained a modest positive bias, though year-to-year variability remained high. Similarly, 截至 2026-01-22，据 The Motley Fool 报道, commentators continue to frame Thanksgiving-week gains as historically common but small in size.</p> <h2>Methodology for analysing the Thanksgiving effect</h2> <p>Researchers typically use event-study and time-series approaches. Common design choices include:</p> <ul> <li>Event windows: T-3 to T+3 around Thanksgiving day, Thanksgiving week, or Nov–Jan multi-month windows.</li> <li>Indices: S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, Russell 2000 for cross-checks.</li> <li>Metrics: mean and median returns, win rate (fraction of positive returns), volatility, and average volume changes.</li> <li>Robustness checks: subsample splits (pre/post-1990, pre/post-high-frequency era), bootstrapping, controls for macroeconomic announcements and earnings seasons, and sector-level decomposition.</li> </ul> <p>These methodological choices materially influence conclusions, so results reported in different sources can appear to conflict even when analyzing very similar dates.</p> <h2>Risks, limitations and advice for investors</h2> <p>When considering whether "do stocks go up after Thanksgiving," investors should weigh the following risks:</p> <ul> <li>Seasonal effects are usually smaller than unexpected macro events.</li> <li>Reduced liquidity during the short trading week can worsen execution and widen spreads.</li> <li>Taxes, fees, and short-term trading risks reduce net returns on seasonal plays.</li> <li>Relying solely on holiday seasonality ignores fundamentals, valuation, and macro risk factors.</li> </ul> <p>Neutral guidance: treat the Thanksgiving pattern as one of many seasonal inputs rather than a standalone investment signal. For traders operating around the holiday, explicit risk controls and conservative sizing are prudent.</p> <h2>See also</h2> <ul> <li>Santa Claus rally</li> <li>Holiday effect (calendar anomalies)</li> <li>January effect</li> <li>Tax-loss harvesting</li> <li>Black Friday retail sales</li> <li>Market seasonality</li> </ul> <h2>References</h2> <p>The following sources inform the summary above (sample of popular and industry references):</p> <ul> <li>Stock Trader's Almanac (seasonality summaries and historical indexes)</li> <li>Investopedia (educational articles on holiday effects and calendar anomalies)</li> <li>MarketWatch (seasonal commentary and data snapshots)</li> <li>Yahoo Finance (retail sales and holiday-season market coverage)</li> <li>Morningstar (seasonality and market analysis)</li> <li>The Motley Fool (investor-facing seasonality articles)</li> <li>CXO Advisory and other market research notes on sector seasonality</li> </ul> <h2>External links</h2> <p>For further data and seasonality tools, consult seasonal trackers and official exchange calendars. If you trade or store tokenized assets as part of a multi-asset approach, consider using Bitget and Bitget Wallet for platform and custody needs.</p> <h2>Appendix A: Example data tables and charts (suggested)</h2> <p>Data visualizations that typically support a seasonality article include:</p> <ul> <li>Historical annual Thanksgiving-week returns table for major indices.</li> <li>Win-rate table by weekday (e.g., Wednesday before, Friday after, Cyber Monday).</li> <li>Sector performance table during Thanksgiving week.</li> <li>Cumulative Nov–Jan return chart for multi-year seasonal trade simulations.</li> </ul> <h2>Appendix B: Suggested research extensions</h2> <p>Possible extensions for researchers:</p> <ul> <li>Cross-country comparisons: do non-U.S. markets show comparable post-holiday effects?</li> <li>Intraday analysis on the Black Friday half-day.</li> <li>Impact of algorithmic/high-frequency trading on holiday liquidity and seasonality.</li> <li>Behavior in futures and options markets around Thanksgiving.</li> </ul> <h2>Practical takeaway</h2> <p>When investors ask "do stocks go up after Thanksgiving," the historically accurate answer is: often, modestly, and inconsistently. The short week frequently shows a slight positive bias in major U.S. indices, and strong retail spending on Black Friday/Cyber Monday can support consumer stocks. However, the effect size is small, sample-dependent, and easily dominated by macro or company-specific news.</p> <p>If you follow seasonality, combine it with robust risk management and consider execution challenges during the shortened holiday week. For trading infrastructure or custody related to multi-asset strategies tied to seasonal plays, Bitget and Bitget Wallet provide platform and custody options aligned with this guide's practical recommendations.</p> <h2>Further reading and data verification</h2> <p>To verify seasonal claims and explore raw data, consult index providers and seasonal research tools. Market participants can test their own event windows using S&P 500 historical series, Russell indices for small-cap checks, and sector ETFs to identify cross-sectional differences.</p> <p>As a final note, the question "do stocks go up after Thanksgiving" is useful as a starting point for seasonal awareness but should not substitute for a comprehensive investment process that weighs fundamentals, valuation, and risk tolerance.</p> <footer> <p>Explore more articles and tools on Bitget Wiki to deepen your understanding of market seasonality and trading mechanics.立即了解更多关于Bitget的功能与产品，或在Bitget Wallet中管理您的多元资产。</p> </footer>