does apple stock go up in september

does apple stock go up in september

Quick answer: historically, September has often been a weaker or more volatile month for Apple (AAPL), but outcomes vary year to year depending on product launches, fundamentals, and macro conditions.

This article examines the question "does apple stock go up in september" from seasonality charts, recent reporting, event-driven examples, and practical investor considerations. You will learn historical tendencies, the role of the iPhone launch (the main calendar event for Apple), what can amplify or reverse September moves, and how traders and long-term holders typically treat this month.

Overview of September seasonality for AAPL

Many market-data providers and reporters ask "does apple stock go up in september" because Apple’s corporate calendar places a recurring product-cycle event—usually the iPhone announcement—near the end of the third quarter. Historically, that timing contributes to a noticeable seasonal pattern: a pre-event run-up in some years, greater-than-normal volatility, and vulnerability to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction around the announcement.

As of Aug 31, 2024, reporters noted that September has historically been a rough month for Apple shares. More recently, reporting through September 2025 shows the pattern persists but is sensitive to product reception and macro conditions.

Historical performance statistics

Long-term monthly seasonality (multi-decade)

Seasonality studies spanning multiple decades examine whether specific months show repeated average returns or win frequencies. Seasonality charts produced from long sample windows show that, across several decades, September is often among the months with lower average returns or lower win rates for Apple compared with other months.

• Data vendors with long-term seasonality series compile monthly returns over 30–43 years to produce mean and median month-by-month averages. These seasonality series are useful to answer "does apple stock go up in september" from a historical perspective, but they only show average tendencies, not guarantees.

• As of the most recent multi-decade seasonality datasets, September frequently ranks below the yearly average return for AAPL and shows higher dispersion than many other months. That implies that while some Septembers produce gains, the probability of a flat or negative month has historically been elevated relative to months like November or December.

(Reporting note: Tradewell provides a 43-year AAPL seasonality chart that is commonly referenced for long-run monthly averages.)

Recent-decade trends (last 10–15 years)

When asking "does apple stock go up in september" it helps to look at the past decade because Apple’s business mix shifted materially (hardware + services growth) and markets structure changed.

• Over the last 10–15 years, several widely reported analyses have found that September has often produced below-average returns for AAPL. For example, major business press coverage in late August and early September repeatedly flagged that September tends to be weaker for Apple.

• In the last decade, product-news sensitivity (iPhone expectations, supply-chain commentary) combined with broader market events (rate cycles, seasonal flows) have increased September’s variability. Some Septembers saw pre-launch rallies and post-launch corrections, while others produced sustained gains after strong demand reports.

(Reporting note: Nasdaq, CNBC and Investopedia have published analyses in 2023–2024 summarizing recent-decade patterns tied to the iPhone cycle.)

The iPhone launch effect

Typical timeline around launches (pre-event, announcement day, post-launch)

Apple’s typical product calendar concentrates attention in late August through September. The common pattern observed by traders and analysts is:

• Pre-event (weeks to months before): increased speculation and positioning. Investors and funds anticipating strong demand or new features may buy shares ahead of the announcement.

• Announcement day (event month, usually September): heightened volatility. Headlines, guidance updates, and press commentary can trigger immediate repricing. The market often reacts quickly to concrete details.

• Post-launch (weeks to months after): fundamentals and sales data (channel checks, Apple guidance, and later quarterly results) determine sustainability. A successful launch with strong early demand can reverse any initial post-event dip.

This sequence leads many to ask at the start: "does apple stock go up in september" — and the historical short answer is that September’s outcome often depends on how the event meets or misses elevated expectations.

Evidence and examples

• As of Aug 28, 2023, market coverage ahead of that year’s iPhone launch described the standard dynamics: anticipation ahead of the event, and a risk of a sell-the-news reaction upon the announcement.

• Major business press coverage through September 2025 documented instances when Apple rallied into the iPhone event and then experienced either a pullback or continued appreciation depending on the perceived product and supply outlook. For example, reporting around the September 2025 iPhone 17 cycle highlighted both the pre-event run-up and a notable post-event move when early market commentary suggested strong adoption.

• Investment-education pieces (for example, an October 2024 report summarizing whether to buy AAPL before or after an iPhone release) emphasize the repeated pattern: markets sometimes "buy the rumor" and then "sell the news," creating a concentration of trades around September announcements.

(Reporting note: Nasdaq (Aug 28, 2023), Investopedia (Oct 9, 2024), MarketWatch (Sept 9, 2025) and multiple outlets in Sept 2025 covered these dynamics.)

Drivers behind September weakness or volatility

Product-cycle dynamics (iPhone seasonality, leaks, channel inventory)

Product-cycle factors are central to the question "does apple stock go up in september":

• Expectations: Analysts, investors, and supply-chain checks form expectations months ahead. When expectations are high, the margin for disappointment widens.

• Leaks and rumor flow: Unconfirmed details about features, production volume, or timing can lead to positioning that reverses once official information appears.

• Channel inventory and sell-through: Retail and carrier order data after launch inform the market whether demand meets forecasts; disappointing early indicators can surprise investors shortly after the event.

Macro and market factors

September is also influenced by macro variables that can amplify or offset product-driven moves:

• Interest-rate expectations and central-bank communications around quarter-end can shift valuation multiples.

• Seasonal fund flows and tax-year positioning (portfolio rebalancing at quarter end) can increase volume and volatility.

• Broader equity-market sentiment (risk-on vs risk-off) often interacts with Apple’s large weighting in indices, creating correlation-driven moves.

Company fundamentals and guidance

Earnings guidance, revenue mix (services vs hardware), supply-chain updates, and margin commentary affect investor perception at the same time product events occur. A strong services narrative or higher-than-expected iPhone ASPs (average selling prices) can blunt typical September weakness.

Empirical considerations and data limitations

Data sources and sample size

Answering "does apple stock go up in september" formally requires transparent data choices: the sample period, price vs total return, and handling of corporate actions.

• Seasonality providers use differing sample lengths (e.g., 30–43 years) and either price returns or total returns (price + dividends). Tradewell publishes a long-run AAPL seasonality series used by many observers.

• Professional research (FactSet, IBES, broker research) typically documents the sample window and methodology; media summaries reference those studies when describing September weaknesses.

Statistical caveats

• Survivorship and structural change: Apple’s business changed drastically from the 1990s to today (large shift toward services), meaning older data may reflect a different company profile.

• Changing market structure: index inclusion, ETF flows, and broader investor base can change how seasonality manifests.

• Small-sample noise: monthly averages are noisy; a handful of extreme Septembers can skew means. Median and win-rate statistics provide complementary views.

Because of these issues, seasonality answers the question "does apple stock go up in september" only as probability, not as certainty.

Investment and trading implications

Short-term trading strategies

Traders who try to exploit September seasonality often use event-driven tactics:

• Buy-the-rumor / sell-the-news: buying ahead of rumored upgrades and selling after the announcement if the event meets expectations.

• Option strategies: straddles/strangles for volatility plays, or calendar spreads to capture a directional bias with controlled risk.

• Momentum or mean-reversion trades around post-event spikes or dips.

Risks: execution costs, wide intraday moves, and unexpected macro shocks can produce rapid losses. Traders need position sizing and stop discipline.

Long-term investor perspective

Long-term holders asking "does apple stock go up in september" should consider that:

• Monthly seasonality is a short-horizon statistical pattern. For investors with multi-year horizons, fundamentals, growth outlook, and valuation matter more than month-specific tendencies.

• Apple’s revenue mix, margin trajectory, and services growth are structural factors that historically have explained sustained multi-year performance better than any calendar month.

• Investors worried about timing can use dollar-cost averaging or scheduled rebalancing rather than trying to outguess September movements.

Risk management and practical considerations

• Transaction costs and tax implications matter when trading seasonality; frequent trading raises friction.

• Use position sizing aligned with volatility; September historically shows elevated volatility around product events.

• When seeking data for trading or investing, use repeatable sources (seasonality charts, official filings, channel checks) and prefer platforms with robust execution and analytics—consider using Bitget’s market tools and Bitget Wallet for custody-related workflows.

Notable exceptions and recent examples

While the historical tendency often points to weaker Septembers, specific years deviate sharply:

• Some Septembers produced gains when post-launch reception and early sales indicated stronger-than-expected demand, reversing any immediate sell-the-news reaction.

• As of Sept 22, 2025, coverage around the iPhone 17 launch documented a move where initial volatility gave way to broader gains over the subsequent weeks when demand indicators were positive.

• Conversely, some Septembers coincided with broader market drawdowns or supply concerns that amplified negative price moves.

These exceptions show that asking "does apple stock go up in september" must always be followed by "in which year and under which conditions?"

How to research month‑specific performance for AAPL

If you want to verify whether "does apple stock go up in september" for a given sample or year, check these items:

• Seasonality charts from established vendors (multi-decade series, median and mean by month). Many providers show win rate, mean return, and volatility per month.

• Total return vs price return: prefer total return if you want the full investor experience.

• Sample period and corporate actions: confirm the years included and adjustments for splits/dividends.

• Event chronology: map iPhone announcement dates, earnings, and guidance releases that fall within or near September for the years under study.

• Use primary filings and company statements for definitive facts; use reputable market-data tools for historical intraday and monthly series. For execution or custody needs, consider Bitget exchange services and Bitget Wallet for related workflows and analytics.

Conclusion and practical takeaways

Seasonality answers to the question "does apple stock go up in september" are probabilistic, not deterministic. Historically, September has often been a weaker or more volatile month for AAPL—driven largely by the iPhone launch cycle and common buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news dynamics—but outcomes depend on product reception, guidance, and macro context.

If you are a short-term trader, September’s pattern can create opportunities and elevated risk around event windows; if you are a long-term investor, September tendencies are interesting context but should not replace analysis of fundamentals and valuation.

For those who want tools and custody aligned with trading or research workflows, Bitget provides market analytics and Bitget Wallet for secure asset management and execution support.

See also

• AAPL (Apple Inc.)
• iPhone launch cycle
• Stock seasonality
• Buy the rumor, sell the news
• FactSet and IBES seasonality research

References

1. Tradewell — AAPL Stock Seasonality Charts (Tradewell, long-run seasonality dataset; referenced for multi-decade monthly averages).
2. CNBC — "September is a historically rough month for Apple shares. Here's what could happen next" (reported Aug 31, 2024).
3. Nasdaq — "What to Expect from Apple (AAPL) Stock In September as iPhone Launch Approaches" (reported Aug 28, 2023).
4. MarketWatch — "Here's how Apple's stock performs around iPhone launches" (reported Sept 9, 2025).
5. Investopedia — "Should You Buy Apple Stock Before or After a New iPhone is Released?" (reported Oct 9, 2024).
6. CNBC coverage and Motley Fool reporting on the iPhone 17 cycle and AAPL moves (reported Sept 22, 2025).