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Foresight News reported that Polymarket has pinned several prediction markets related to the US-Iran war, including when a ceasefire will occur and whether the Iranian regime will collapse before mid-year.

1. Vitalik: EIP-8141 is expected to be implemented within a year, fully addressing the account abstraction issue; 2. Trump posted: Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has died; 3. Four relatives of Khamenei are reportedly killed in the attack; 4. By 2025, the scale of Iran's crypto ecosystem will reach $7.78 billions, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps controlling over 50% of the capital flow; 5. Lily Liu responded to controversial remarks, seemingly implying that she "does not speculate on coins, only builds"; 6. The Aave Will Win proposal Temp Check has passed; 7. The UAE has decided to evacuate the world's tallest building, the Burj Khalifa; 8. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the UK claims it remains open; 9. Bloomberg: Bitcoin trades around the clock, becoming the most liquid asset for expressing macro views when other markets are closed; 10. A Polymarket user bet that the US and Israel would not strike Iran, earning over $2 millions in two months but losing $6.5 millions in a single day; 11. CertiK: The total loss from security incidents in February was about $35.7 millions, the lowest since March 2025.

⑴ The Gaza Strip border crossings have been closed due to conflict, while repeated news of the closure and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has sparked market concerns over crude oil supply. The United States has advised ships to avoid the area. ⑵ The Israeli military deployed around 200 fighter jets to strike approximately 500 targets in Iran. The U.S. side stated that "Tomahawk" missiles were used to suppress Iran's air defense systems and successfully repelled hundreds of missile and drone attacks from Iran. ⑶ Iran announced a new round of missile attacks against the "aggressors." Explosions were reported in Dubai, UAE, Doha, the capital of Qatar, and Tel Aviv, Israel. The Qatari Ministry of Defense stated that its territory was attacked by 65 missiles and 12 drones, and it has recalled its ambassador to Iran. ⑷ Conflicting information has emerged regarding the status of Iran's supreme leadership. Although Israeli officials and the U.S. president claimed that Khamenei had been eliminated, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said he was "safe and sound." Meanwhile, rumors that Iran's vice president has taken over power during wartime have raised doubts about the stability of Tehran's authority. ⑸ The Houthi armed group announced the resumption of attacks on Red Sea corridor shipping and launched missiles toward Israel, further increasing security risks for global key trade routes. As a result, safe-haven assets such as gold and crude oil are expected to receive strong buying support in early trading on Monday, and safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc may strengthen. ⑹ In the next 24 hours, close attention should be paid to the official passage status of the Strait of Hormuz and whether the infrastructure of major oil-producing countries has been damaged. In addition, the final confirmation regarding Iran's supreme leadership will be a key variable affecting market sentiment.