JPMorgan and Goldman Predict US Earnings Growth Expanding Past Major Tech Firms

Wall Street Sees Broader US Earnings Growth Beyond Big Tech

Leading analysts on Wall Street are beginning to notice that US corporate earnings are starting to expand beyond the dominant mega-cap technology firms that have fueled the artificial intelligence surge.

Although the current earnings season is just getting underway, research from JPMorgan Chase & Co. indicates that about half of the S&P 500 companies offering 2026 forecasts have provided guidance that exceeds expectations.

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“Given that most of the companies reporting so far are outside the technology sector, this points to a potential expansion of earnings growth into other areas of the market this year,” noted strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas.

Strategists at Goldman Sachs, led by Ben Snider, also anticipate that earnings will help drive broader market gains. They project robust economic performance in the first half of 2026, which could benefit smaller and more economically sensitive companies more than the largest firms.

Additional indicators reinforce the view that growth is spreading beyond the tech giants that have dominated for the past three years. The S&P 500 Index, weighted by market capitalization, has increased by about 1%, while an equal-weighted version—where large tech firms have less influence—has climbed nearly 4%. Furthermore, the proportion of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average is close to its highest point in the last year, according to Bloomberg data.

With forecasts suggesting the earnings gap between the so-called Magnificent Seven tech stocks and the rest of the S&P 500 will shrink, investors are turning their attention to traditional sectors like banking, consumer goods, and mining.

For instance, Procter & Gamble Co. saw its stock rise 2.7% on Thursday after executives reported a rebound in US sales and expressed confidence in meeting annual targets. United Airlines Holdings Inc. also gained ground after predicting a strong year driven by increased demand.

This week, the earnings season intensifies, with companies representing about one-third of the S&P 500’s total market value—including Microsoft Corp. and Boeing Co.—set to release their results.

However, Goldman’s Snider warned that sustaining this momentum could be challenging. Current projections indicate S&P 500 earnings could grow by 15% in 2026, outpacing the 10% rise expected for the equal-weighted index.

Looking Ahead: Economic Growth and Market Rotation

Snider also predicts that economic growth will likely slow in the latter half of 2026 and into 2027, which could limit the extent of this broader market rotation.

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