Commodity Markets Surge While Bitcoin Battles to Retain Value

Global Commodity Rally

Gold is on track for its largest monthly gain since 1999. Silver is setting new records, and palladium is eyeing its largest monthly increase since 2008. Tin has surged by 33% within the month. Natural gas has reached its highest level in three years. Copper hit a record $13,400. Aluminium is nearing a four-year peak, and lithium has hit a two-year high.

Gold has risen nearly 18% this month alone, doubling Bitcoin’s total value gain in just 26 days of 2026. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has largely remained stagnant for the past three months, and Bitcoin continues to hover in the narrow range it has been stuck in for over two months.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin leverage ratios are quietly decreasing. Since the introduction of ETFs, the 60-day percentage change in open futures positions has been marking lower highs, signaling a reduction in speculative intensity within the system. It’s uncertain if this will lead to further decline, yet if the trend breaks, a rise in spot prices could mark an end to the uneventful days.

Swissblock, sharing the Bitcoin risk index, presented two scenarios for investors via the chart below.

“Recent price movements have strengthened the downward trend. The risk index continues to rise as BTC has lost its crucial support at $89,200, increasing the overall bearish trend.

However, bulls are yet holding a critical defense line in the $84,500 zone, which is currently seen as the nearest target for a pullback.”

• Bull Scenario: A high-conviction entry may appear for long positions if the $84.5k support holds as the Risk Index cools down, accepting liquidity clearing.

• Bear Scenario: A break and consolidation below $84,500 is likely to trigger a deeper correction, with new lows below November levels. The primary target is $74,000.”