Bitcoin edges closer to $70,000 as on-chain signals suggest a bearish trend and investors anticipate the Fed will maintain rates in April: Asia Morning Update

Asia Morning Market Update

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Bitcoin begins the Asian session with clear bearish signals from on-chain metrics, as its value stabilizes in the mid-$70,000 range while global equities remain uncertain about their direction.

According to CryptoQuant’s recent analysis, the current market weakness is rooted in structural issues rather than typical cycles. Their Bull Score Index has dropped to zero, and bitcoin is trading well below its October highs. The report suggests that the market is now characterized by fewer active buyers and shrinking liquidity, rather than profit-taking.

Glassnode’s data supports this view, highlighting low spot trading volumes and a lack of sustained demand to absorb selling. The challenge appears to be a lack of participation, not panic-driven selling.

Institutional investment patterns have shifted as well. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, which were net buyers a year ago, have now become net sellers, resulting in a significant year-over-year drop in demand.

Additionally, the Coinbase premium has stayed negative since October, indicating that American investors are not stepping in despite lower prices. Historically, strong U.S. spot demand has fueled bullish trends, but that momentum is currently lacking.

Liquidity is also tightening. The expansion of stablecoins—which typically boosts risk appetite and trading—has stalled, with USDT’s market cap declining for the first time since 2023.

Long-term demand has also fallen sharply from last year’s levels, suggesting that the decline is due to waning participation rather than just leveraged positions being cleared. Technically, bitcoin remains below its 365-day moving average, with major support clustered between $70,000 and $60,000 based on on-chain valuation bands.

On a broader scale, bitcoin is acting more like a high-volatility tech stock than a safe-haven asset. Prediction markets show traders largely expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady in April, with only slight anticipation of a rate cut in June. This cautious outlook limits hopes for a near-term boost in liquidity.

Political factors are adding further complexity. President Donald Trump recently discussed his nominee for Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, stating in an interview that a candidate favoring higher rates would not have been selected. This comment has dampened earlier optimism about the central bank’s independence.

For Asian markets, the prevailing theme is not one of dramatic shocks, but rather a lack of conviction and participation. While short-term rebounds are possible, confidence remains subdued.

Market Snapshot

• BTC: Bitcoin slipped into the mid-$70,000s after briefly testing support, with any recovery attempts quickly losing steam amid weak spot demand and continued pressure on tech stocks.
• ETH: Ether hovered just above $2,000, struggling to gain traction as overall risk appetite faded and trading activity stayed muted across major platforms.
• Gold: Gold climbed back toward the $5,000–$5,100 range, extending a volatile rally fueled by safe-haven demand following renewed U.S.–Iran tensions and weaker private payroll data, while traders reassessed the Fed’s direction under Trump’s new chair pick.
• Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped by about 0.3%, with chip and tech stocks mirroring Wall Street’s decline, though the broader Japanese market remained more resilient than other regional indices.

Other Crypto Headlines

• Binance has refuted claims that it issued legal threats in response to insolvency accusations.
• Kyle Samani, co-founder of Multicoin Capital, is stepping down after nearly ten years to explore new opportunities in technology.