CryptoQuant says bitcoin could fall to $60,000 as downturn worsens beyond 2022 bear market

Bitcoin could fall toward $60,000 as onchain data signals the current downturn is deepening and now looks worse than the early phase of the 2022 bear market, according to CryptoQuant.

The firm said Wednesday its Bull Score Index has dropped to zero, the most bearish reading possible. Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in early October when the index stood at 80, but the metric turned bearish after the Oct. 10 liquidation event and continued falling as the price slid further. The next major support zone lies between $70,000 and $60,000, CryptoQuant said.

The $60,000 level "could take a few months" as it represents the lower end of the target range, and between $60,000 and $70,000 there are key support areas such as the previous cycle all-time high of $69,000 and bitcoin’s production cost of roughly $65,000–$70,000, CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, told The Block.

Bitcoin continues to fall on Thursday and is currently trading around $67,350, according to The Block’s BTC price page.

Crypto's 'broad structural weakness'

Overall, bitcoin’s continued price decline signals what CryptoQuant described as “broad structural weakness” in the crypto market.

A major driver of the weakness is a sharp reversal in institutional demand. U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds were net buyers of more than 46,000 BTC at this time last year, but in 2026, they have turned into net sellers, reducing holdings by roughly 10,600 BTC, CryptoQuant said. That represents a demand gap of roughly 56,000 BTC compared with 2025 and is contributing to persistent selling pressure, the firm added.

U.S. retail investor participation has also remained subdued despite the price decline. The Coinbase premium — a metric comparing bitcoin prices on Coinbase versus global exchanges — has stayed negative since mid-October, CryptoQuant noted. Historically, sustained bull markets have coincided with a positive premium driven by strong U.S. demand, but CryptoQuant said that dynamic is no longer present.

Liquidity conditions across crypto markets are tightening at the same time. The 60-day growth of Tether’s USDT stablecoin market capitalization has turned negative by $133 million, marking the first contraction since October 2023, CryptoQuant said. Stablecoin expansion had previously peaked at $15.9 billion in late October 2025, and its reversal is consistent with liquidity contraction typically seen during bear market phases, the firm added.

Long-term demand growth has also collapsed sharply. Over the past four months, bitcoin’s annual spot demand growth has fallen from 1.1 million BTC to just 77,000 BTC — a 93% decline, CryptoQuant said. The firm added that the data suggests most of the demand growth from this cycle has already occurred, creating a bearish backdrop for prices.

Technical indicators are also reinforcing the bearish outlook. Bitcoin has fallen below its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2022, confirming a downward trend, CryptoQuant said. Since breaking below the level on Nov. 12, 2025, the price has declined 23% over 83 days.

"This performance is worse than at the start of the previous bear market in January 2022, when prices had declined by only 6% after 83 days," CryptoQuant concluded.