Oil Holds Steady as Market Watches Upcoming US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations

Oil Markets Hold Steady Ahead of US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations

Oil prices remained stable as the United States and Iran prepared for critical nuclear discussions. Meanwhile, several leading oil-producing nations in the Middle East increased their exports, adding to the uncertainty around future supply amid ongoing regional tensions.

Brent crude hovered near $71 per barrel after falling for two consecutive days, and West Texas Intermediate was trading close to $66. A US delegation, including special envoy Steve Witkoff, is scheduled to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva on Thursday, as American military presence grows in the region.

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“The outcome of today’s US-Iran discussions will be pivotal for oil price trends,” noted Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV in Singapore. He estimates that crude prices currently include a risk premium of up to $10 per barrel. “Until there’s clarity, the market will likely remain in a holding pattern.”

Oil prices are being pulled between expectations of a global surplus this year and rising geopolitical risks involving Iran. These concerns are reflected in the options market, where bullish bets remain elevated and implied volatility is high.

President Donald Trump expressed a preference for resolving Iran’s nuclear issue through diplomacy but warned of repercussions if an agreement isn’t reached. The US has also imposed fresh sanctions on more than 30 entities linked to Iran’s oil and weapons trade, increasing pressure on Tehran ahead of the talks.

Julian Emanuel, chief equity and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI, commented, “Current options market activity suggests investors are bracing for a potentially tougher outcome regarding Iran.”

As regional tensions persist, Saudi Arabia is set to export its highest volume of crude in nearly three years this month, while Iran has been rapidly loading tankers. Exports from Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates have also risen.

The market is closely monitoring the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, where members will decide on April’s supply strategy. Some officials anticipate a slight production increase, but the outlook remains uncertain due to the ongoing US-Iran tensions.

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Source: Bloomberg L.P., 2026