TJX Defies 129th-Ranked $0.95B Volume to Surge 1.84% on Earnings Beat Cautious Guidance

Market Snapshot

The TjxTJX+1.84% (TJX) closed with a 1.84% gain on February 26, 2026, despite a 25.01% drop in trading volume to $0.95 billion, which ranked 129th in the market. The stock’s performance contrasted with its weaker-than-expected liquidity, indicating mixed investor sentiment. While the price rise reflected optimism around earnings results, the significant decline in trading volume suggested reduced short-term trading activity or a shift in market focus.

Key Drivers

TJX’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results were a primary catalyst for its stock price movement. The company reported revenue of $17.7 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase and exceeding estimates of $17.36 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.43 beat expectations of $1.39, driven by a 5% rise in comparable store sales, with all divisions outperforming forecasts. HomeGoods and TJX Canada saw sales growth of 6% and 7%, respectively, while gross margin expanded to 31.1%. Analysts at Jefferies highlighted “broad-based sales strength” and “merchandise margin upside” as key contributors to the beat.

However, the stock’s muted volume and mixed post-earnings reaction stemmed from cautious guidance for fiscal 2027. Management projected EPS of $4.93–$5.02, below the $5.18 consensus, and forecast comparable sales growth of 2%–3%, lagging expectations of 3.5%. The company cited “modest growth” in a “challenging macro environment,” with first-quarter EPS guidance of $0.97–$0.99 also falling short of the $1.02 estimate. Analysts noted that TJX’s conservative outlook aligned with its historical tendency to issue tempered guidance amid uncertainty, but the downward revisions raised concerns about decelerating demand and margin pressures.

Shareholder return initiatives bolstered near-term confidence. TJX announced a 13% dividend increase to $0.48 per share and a new $3 billion stock repurchase program, adding to its $2.5–$2.75 billion buyback target for fiscal 2027. The company returned $4.3 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2026, including $2.5 billion in repurchases and $1.8 billion in dividends. These actions signaled confidence in cash flow resilience, with management describing inventory levels as “clean” and well-positioned for spring demand.

Analyst sentiment remained largely positive despite the guidance caution. BTIG and Telsey Advisory Group praised TJX’s Q4 performance, with Telsey noting “notable strength at Marmaxx” and “resilience in an uncertain environment.” Barclays raised its price target to $183 from $172, while BTIG lifted its target to $185 from $165. However, some analysts highlighted risks, including the potential for softer consumer spending and the normalization of growth after a strong holiday quarter. The stock’s 1.84% rise reflected optimism about its off-price retail model, but the muted volume and mixed guidance suggested lingering skepticism about long-term momentum.

TJX’s strategic focus on inventory management and cost control also played a role. The company ended Q4 with per-store inventory up 10%, which management described as a strategic buildup to capitalize on spring merchandise flows. Selling, general, and administrative expenses improved to 17.6% of sales, down from 19.2% in the prior year, while inventory shrinkage normalized to pre-pandemic levels. These operational efficiencies helped offset challenges like unfavorable inventory hedges and elevated incentive compensation costs.

In summary, TJX’s stock performance was driven by a combination of strong Q4 execution, shareholder-friendly policies, and analyst optimism, tempered by cautious guidance and macroeconomic headwinds. The market’s 1.84% gain reflected confidence in the company’s ability to navigate a challenging retail landscape, but the drop in trading volume and mixed guidance underscored the delicate balance between near-term resilience and long-term uncertainty.