JPMorgan sees US crypto CLARITY law as a positive trigger.

• The Clarity Act could redefine the cryptocurrency market.
• Regulatory clarity favors Bitcoin and tokens.
• JPMorgan projects crypto catalyst in the second half of the year.

JPMorgan believes that the potential approval of legislation defining the structure of the cryptocurrency market in the United States, known as the CLARITY Act, could occur by mid-2026 and become a relevant factor in the sector's performance in the second half of the year.

Although current sentiment towards cryptocurrencies is still considered weak, the bank's analysts believe that regulatory advancements could change this perception in the coming months.

“Although sentiment remains negative in cryptocurrency markets, we continue to believe that a possible approval of legislation on market structure, likely by mid-year, could serve as a positive catalyst for cryptocurrency markets in the second half of the year,” stated JPMorgan analysts, led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, in [year].

The proposal has already been approved by the House of Representatives and is currently under discussion in the Senate. The text seeks to create a broad regulatory framework for digital assets, establishing clear criteria for classifying tokens as digital commodities under the supervision of the CFTC or as digital securities regulated by the SEC.

Related Stories

JPMorgan sees Bitcoin as more attractive than gold with lower volatility.

05/02/2026

Trump files $5 billion lawsuit against JPMorgan and Jamie Dimon.

22/01/2026

One of the central points involves distinguishing between tokens considered securities and those treated as commodities. The creation of an "entitlement clause" could allow assets linked to ETFs, such as XRP, Solana, Litecoin, Hedera, Dogecoin, and Chainlink, to be framed under a more flexible regime.

Another relevant aspect is the provision for a grace period for new projects, allowing annual fundraising of up to US$75 million without full registration with the SEC, provided they move towards decentralization. According to the bank, this could stimulate innovation and keep venture capital in the US.

The bill also creates clearer rules for crypto brokers and custodians, with registration requirements and custody standards. Traditional institutions, such as BNY Mellon and State Street, could expand their direct role in safeguarding digital assets.

Furthermore, the proposal addresses the tokenization of traditional assets, clarifies the tax treatment of staking, and creates tax exemptions for small everyday cryptocurrency transactions. Miners and validators would also have specific rules during the development phase.

"If approved, the law will reshape the market structure, providing regulatory clarity, ending 'regulation through law enforcement,' promoting tokenization, and facilitating greater institutional participation," the analysts said.

JPMorgan maintains a constructive outlook for Bitcoin in 2026 and reiterated its long-term projection of $266.000, based on a volatility-adjusted comparison to gold.