Caixin Futures: Divergent Strategies in Agricultural Futures Market; Soybeans Remain Strong While Eggs and Live Hogs Are Bearish

⑴ Regarding palm oil, US soybeans continue their upward trend, with strong exports, improved biofuel demand, and Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions supporting oil prices. Domestic soybean oil maintains support at 8,300-8,330 yuan/ton, and spot prices are rising in tandem. Oils, as a weaker link in crude oil transmission, show a more volatile and less smooth upward trend. ⑵ Regarding soybean meal, internationally, the US has raised global import tariff rates, which may weaken China's willingness to purchase US soybeans. USDA forecasts indicate an increase in US soybean planting area and production, overall bearish. Domestic soybean meal inventories remain high, supply pressure persists, and it is recommended to treat the market with a range-bound volatility approach; currently, shorting at high prices is advisable. ⑶ Regarding corn, low year-on-year inventories at northern ports are the main logic behind strong prices, but losses among downstream enterprises and warmer weather unfavorable for storage may limit upward momentum. Short-term volatility is expected to be limited, and the strategy should focus on buying on dips. ⑷ Regarding live hogs, the absolute number of breeding sows remains above the normal retention level, indicating greater mid-term supply pressure. The second round of fattening before the New Year has not been fully digested, and post-holiday demand is extremely weak, with spot prices continuing to decline. It is recommended to mainly short at high prices and pay attention to changes in slaughter volume. ⑸ Regarding eggs, post-holiday sales recovery is slow, supply remains high in February and March, and terminal demand is in the off-season. It is recommended to mainly short at high prices and monitor the subsequent pace of inventory replenishment by traders.