European gas: Potential for price increases grows amid concerns over Russian supply – ING

European Gas Market Faces Increased Uncertainty Amid Russian Warnings

According to ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, the European gas sector is encountering heightened risks as President Putin suggests Russia may divert gas exports away from the European Union. This development comes at a time when global LNG shipments from the Persian Gulf are already experiencing disruptions. The analysts point to limited EU gas reserves, substantial reliance on Russian LNG, and a tight international LNG market as major factors that could drive TTF gas prices higher.

Russian Policy Adds Pressure to European Gas Supplies

European gas markets could see a sharp increase in volatility following President Putin’s remarks about potentially redirecting Russian gas supplies away from the EU. In recent years, Russian gas deliveries to Europe have dropped significantly, and with the EU’s planned ban on Russian imports set to begin in April 2026 and continue through 2027, further declines are expected. These changes threaten to destabilize Europe’s energy balance, especially as Persian Gulf LNG flows remain uncertain.

Currently, EU gas storage levels are below 30% capacity, mirroring the tight conditions observed in 2022 at this time of year.

Putin’s statements put a considerable portion of European gas supply at risk. In 2025, the EU sourced nearly 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas and LNG from Russia, accounting for 12% of its total imports. This included 20 bcm of LNG and 18 bcm delivered via pipeline through Turkstream.

The analysts emphasize that LNG imports represent the most significant vulnerability. Under normal market conditions, shifts in global LNG trade could be managed over time. However, with 110 bcm per year of Persian Gulf LNG currently affected, Europe faces a substantial challenge in securing alternative supplies.

Overall, this development is likely to intensify concerns about supply security in the European gas market, potentially pushing TTF prices higher in the near term if disruptions from the Persian Gulf persist.

(This report was produced with assistance from an AI tool and subsequently reviewed by an editor.)