ICF Stock Declines 5.2% Since Q4 Earnings and Revenue Miss

ICF ICFI reported unimpressive fourth-quarter 2025 results, with both earnings and revenues missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

The stock has declined 5.2% since the release of results on Feb. 26, reflecting poor quarterly performance and weak earnings guidance for the first quarter of 2026.

The company announced fourth-quarter earnings of $1.47 per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.53 per share and declined 21.4% from the year-ago reported figure. Revenues of $443.7 million marginally missed the consensus mark of $445 million and declined 10.6% from the year-ago quarter.

For the first quarter of 2026, the company’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be approximately $1.55, lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.62 per share.

ICFI’s Segmental Revenues

Revenues from government clients decreased 23% from the year-ago quarter’s level to $280.1 million, below our estimate of $367.2 million. U.S. state and local government revenues came in at $78.5 million, representing 17.7% of total revenues. U.S. state and local government revenues lagged our prediction of $106.9 million but increased 4.3% year over year.

International government revenues of $33.8 million, representing 7.6% of the total revenues, beat our estimate of $13.5 million and increased 12.8% from the year-ago quarter.

U.S. federal government revenues of $167.8 million contributed 37.8% to total revenues.  The said revenues missed our estimate of $246.8 million and decreased 35.1% on a year-over-year basis.

Commercial revenues, representing 36.9% of the total revenues, amounted to $163.6 million. The figure outpaced our expectation of $84.5 million and rose 23.3% from the year-ago quarter.

Operating Performance of ICFI

Adjusted EBITDA fell 18.3% year over year to $46 million. The current adjusted EBITDA margin of 10.4% decreased 90 basis points from the year-ago quarter.

ICFI’s Balance Sheet and Cash Flow

ICF International exited the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $5.29 billion compared with $4.96 billion in the December-end quarter of 2024. Long-term debt at the end of the quarter was $401.36 million, down from $411.74 million in the year-ago quarter.

ICFI used $75.63 million in cash from operating activities. Capital expenditure was $6.91 million.

Other Guidance by ICFI

For the first quarter of 2026, the company expects total revenues to be approximately $450 million, which is in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. GAAP and adjusted EPS are expected to be approximately $1.20.

For full-year 2026, revenues are expected to be in the range of $1.89-$1.96 billion, with the midpoint of $1.93 billion being higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.91 billion. GAAP EPS is expected to range from $5.95 to $6.25 for the full year of 2026. ICFI expects its adjusted EPS to be between $6.95 and $7.25, with the midpoint of $7.10 being above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.04.

Operating cash flow is estimated to be $135 million to $150 million, while the capital expenditure is anticipated to be between $23 million and $25 million.

The full-year tax rate is expected to be approximately 20.5%.

ICFI currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Recent Earnings Snapshots

Waste Connections, Inc. WCN reported impressive fourth-quarter 2025 results.

Waste Connections’ adjusted earnings (excluding 28 cents from non-recurring items) of $1.29 per share marginally beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate and increased 11.2% year over year. WCN’s revenues of $2.4 billion met the consensus estimate and grew 5% from the year-ago quarter.

Equifax Inc. EFX posted impressive fourth-quarter 2025 results.

EFX’s adjusted earnings were $2.09 per share, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.5% but declining 1.4% from the year-ago quarter. Equifax’s total revenues of $1.6 billion surpassed the consensus estimate by 1.3% and grew 9.2% on a year-over-year basis.