US-Israel war with Iran sends shockwaves through global business

"The impact on gas prices in Europe has been immediate, ​with ​an 80% increase in the spot price and considerable uncertainty about its future," it said in a statement. "Some production has ​therefore been halted or slowed down."

Airline stocks have also been hammered. European budget carrier ‌Wizz Air, which is hedged, warned that the war would dent its net profit for fiscal year 2026 by about 50 million euros ($58 million).

ALUMINIUM, HELIUM AND SULPHUR

The disruption to sea freight affected specialised industrial inputs like sulphur and led major aluminium producers to invoke force majeure clauses. Shippers and insurers have hiked some prices dramatically in response to the conflict.

Qatari smelter Qatalum began shutting down operations this week, while Aluminium Bahrain said it had halted shipments and declared force majeure because it could not move metal through the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf region accounts for about 8% of global aluminium supply.

Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange jumped sharply on the news, while physical premiums in Europe and the United States climbed to multi‑year highs.

South Korean officials warned that a prolonged conflict could disrupt supplies of key semiconductor manufacturing materials sourced from the Middle East, including helium, which is ‌essential for chip production and has no viable substitute.

Drone strikes that damaged some of Amazon's data centres in the United ​Arab Emirates and Bahrain raised questions about technology supply chains and Big Tech's pace of expansion in the region.

RECESSION PLAYBOOK

A prolonged energy ​shock could call for the "recession playbook", Morgan Stanley warned, while Goldman Sachs analysts said a temporary surge ​in oil prices to $100 per barrel could slow global growth by 0.4 of a percentage point.

Much depends on the length of the conflict, highly uncertain even if many feel ‌that Trump doesn't want a protracted and costly war ahead of November's U.S. midterm ​elections.

"You don't really want this to last for too ​long," said Emmanuel Cau, Head of European Equity Strategy at Barclays. "If it is a few weeks or months, of course you're going to have earnings expectations starting to be cut."

British auto distributor Inchcape said the conflict could delay some Japan-Europe shipments by weeks, while online travel agent Loveholidays is preparing to delay its London IPO because of market turmoil and travel chaos.

Markus Krebber, CEO of RWE, Germany's ​biggest power producer, said that energy was "once again dominating headlines all over the world".

"Gas ‌and oil prices are volatile, key shipping routes face geopolitical pressure, and policymakers are concerned about supply risks," Krebber said.

"The renewed uncertainty is a reminder of an uncomfortable reality: the next ​energy crisis isn't an if – it's a when, and a question of how prepared we are."

($1 = 0.8638 euros)

(Reporting by Ben Blanchard, Alex Marrow, Eliza Anzolin, Dominique Patton, Christoph Steitz, David Gaffen, ​Ozan Erganay, Arpan Daniel Varghese, Yadarisa Shabong; Writing by Josephine Mason and Adam Jourdan; Editing by Catherine Evans)