Stablecoin Companies Make Major Wagers on AI Agent Transactions That Are Still Rare

The Race to Build AI-Driven Payment Systems

Circle Internet Group Inc. and Stripe Inc. are rapidly developing payment solutions for a future where autonomous AI agents handle countless transactions daily, using stablecoins instead of traditional credit cards.

Recently, a scenario from Citrini Research speculated that AI agents could bypass card network fees, causing shares of Visa, Mastercard, and American Express to drop by up to 5% in a single day. Although the market quickly recovered, the idea of disruption persisted.

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What began as a speculative idea on Substack has now made its way into corporate earnings discussions, fueling excitement for new products and blockchain initiatives.

Stablecoins and the Future of Machine Commerce

During Circle’s February 25 earnings call, CEO Jeremy Allaire suggested that stablecoins could become the standard currency for transactions between machines.

“We’re creating a new financial system for the internet, and we’re confident that Circle will play a pivotal role at the intersection of AI, stablecoins, and blockchain,” Allaire explained.

The stablecoin sector is now highlighting high-frequency, low-value payments between software agents as a key reason for expanding their infrastructure.

Both Circle and Stripe have attracted significant investment, not just because of their vision for agent-driven payments. Circle’s stock soared after strong earnings, while Stripe’s valuation recently hit $159 billion, fueled by $1.9 trillion in payment volume. Their AI ambitions are layered atop already thriving businesses.

Stripe Achieves $159 Billion Valuation Amid Surging Payment Volumes

Stablecoins have long promised faster and cheaper cross-border payments compared to traditional systems. However, domestically, the benefits are less clear. Agent-driven payments could change that, offering a scenario where the advantages over cards are fundamental rather than marginal. As a result, the industry is increasingly looking to AI agents as the next big growth story.

AI Agents: The Next Frontier

In a follow-up interview, Allaire distinguished between AI making consumer purchases and the broader opportunity he envisions.

“The challenge isn’t enabling an AI to shop on Amazon—that can be solved with simple credentialing and user confirmation,” he said. “The real potential lies in AIs transacting with each other for various services.”

Enabling Microtransactions for AI Agents

Allaire described a future where AI agents routinely purchase services from one another. For example, a legal AI might handle requests from other agents representing businesses. When an agent requests data or information, the cost could be just a few cents—making traditional card payments impractical due to their fixed and percentage-based fees.

Mark Palmer, an analyst at Benchmark-StoneX, noted, “Traditional payment rails are ill-suited for microtransactions because of their costs, delays, and lack of programmability. AI agents would benefit from programmable money that integrates seamlessly into software workflows and settles instantly.”

Building the Infrastructure

Circle has launched Arc, a new blockchain designed for stablecoin payments, and is piloting “nanopayments,” which allow autonomous agents to hold balances and transact across networks at a fraction of a cent—making machine-to-machine commerce viable in ways card fees never could.

Stripe, in partnership with crypto venture firm Paradigm, is developing Tempo, a blockchain tailored for stablecoin transactions. The project has raised $500 million at a $5 billion valuation, with partners including Visa, Mastercard, UBS, and Shopify. Stripe has also invested over $1.1 billion in stablecoin infrastructure, notably acquiring Bridge in 2025.

The push for new payment infrastructure extends beyond Circle and Stripe. Shopify has teamed up with Stripe and Coinbase to let merchants accept Circle’s USDC and plans to offer 1% cashback for stablecoin payments. Coinbase has launched a merchant payments platform and developed x402, an open standard for agent-driven payments.

Adoption Challenges Remain

Despite these efforts, widespread adoption is still limited. x402 has reported $24 million in volume across 94,000 buyers and 22,000 sellers in the past month—a small figure compared to the global e-commerce market, which is projected to reach $6.88 trillion this year.

Chris Donat, head of payments and fintech research at BWG Global, commented, “Merchants are generally indifferent to payment methods, but they won’t adopt new options unless there’s significant consumer demand. Right now, stablecoins aren’t something consumers are asking to use.” He also described predictions that agent-driven commerce could reach 20% of e-commerce as “quite optimistic.”

Balancing Innovation and Security

Even in a world dominated by AI agents, stablecoin payments lack the fraud protection, dispute resolution, and credit features that credit cards provide. A more likely near-term scenario is a hybrid approach: agents using virtual cards that settle via stablecoins, allowing both card networks and stablecoin systems to coexist.

A Mastercard spokesperson emphasized, “People want assurance, accountability, and the knowledge that someone is looking out for them when AI acts on their behalf. As AI agents take on more responsibility, trusted infrastructure becomes even more vital.”

Market Outlook

Allaire acknowledged that it’s unclear when agent-driven transactions will reach significant scale. Circle’s stock has climbed nearly 30% this year, despite being down almost 60% from its peak after going public in June.

Recent gains have been supported by an increase in USDC held on the platform, growth in new business lines like Circle Payments Network and Arc blockchain, and timely commentary on agent-driven commerce. John Todaro, an analyst at Needham & Co., remarked, “Management’s focus on agent-driven opportunities is well-timed, especially in today’s market where AI is reshaping the investment landscape. Positioning AI as a growth driver, rather than a threat, can be a significant advantage.”

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