Polymarket Founder Reports Increasing Pushback Against War Wagers

Prediction Markets Face Scrutiny Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

Shayne Coplan, the founder and CEO of Polymarket, recently acknowledged that as prediction markets gain more attention, especially those related to global conflicts, they are encountering increased risks. He candidly admitted that with greater prominence comes both financial growth and heightened challenges, raising concerns that the platform could become a political flashpoint.

During his appearance at the 2026 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Coplan emphasized that prediction markets still offer valuable insights. However, he described the situation in Iran as particularly complex, noting that the uncertainty of war often leads to confusion and misinterpretation.

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“There remains significant pushback against new ideas, which can be unsettling at first,” Coplan remarked on Saturday. “But that’s exactly what makes these innovations disruptive.”

His comments are part of a broader effort by the prediction market sector to defend itself against criticism regarding potential insider trading and the morality of betting on conflict outcomes.

According to data compiled by users on Dune Analytics, bets on Polymarket concerning geopolitical events soared to $425.4 million in the week ending March 1, a sharp increase from $163.9 million the previous week. While US law generally bans financial contracts linked to warfare, and most prediction markets avoid such topics, Polymarket’s main platform operates outside US jurisdiction.

Coplan admitted the topic is controversial but maintained that prediction markets can offer practical benefits in critical situations.

He shared, “I’ve been contacted by people in the Middle East who say they check Polymarket daily to decide whether to sleep near bomb shelters. That level of influence is remarkable and represents a new kind of value that didn’t exist before.”

Coplan also pointed out that insider trading in prediction markets is fundamentally different from what occurs in traditional stock markets, where information like quarterly earnings is tightly regulated. He argued that prediction markets are more about aggregating information—such as predicting product launches or performance—than about facilitating large-scale institutional trading.

“Prediction markets are not all the same,” he explained. “Comparing them to equities is like comparing apples to oranges. The real benefit is in the information they provide, not in massive trades or large open orders.”

Industry Growth and Regulatory Challenges

Both Kalshi and Polymarket, leading companies in the prediction market space, are reportedly seeking new investment at valuations near $20 billion each, according to the Wall Street Journal. Kalshi declined to comment, and Polymarket did not respond to inquiries.

Ric Best, who leads prediction markets at Susquehanna International Group, noted that insider trading in equities revolves around the use and confidentiality of information. “There isn’t a clear definition of insider information in prediction markets,” Best said during the same panel. “When people hear ‘insider information,’ they often think about fairness.”

However, Best emphasized that certain boundaries are necessary: “There are some markets you simply can’t allow, such as those that could incentivize harmful behavior. For example, you can’t create a market on whether someone will be assassinated.”

He added, “This industry is still in its infancy. Regulations are evolving, and authorities are working to establish appropriate rules.”

Susquehanna has recently partnered with Robinhood Markets Inc. to acquire LedgerX, a US-based derivatives exchange, marking a significant step into the prediction market sector as more institutional investors show interest.

With contributions from Denitsa Tsekova, Emily Nicolle, and Nathaniel Popper.

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