Caixin Futures: Most Black Series Commodities Remain Strong and Volatile, Iron Ore Arbitrage Positions Can Continue to Be Held

(1) Steel: Demand-driven overall weakness, high inventory still exerts pressure, and in the short term, the market valuation is lifted by cost support. Technically, the Rebar 05 contract shows a mix of reduced positions during rebounds and declines, with resistance at the 3145 level above. In terms of capital flows, the Rebar 05 contract mainly saw long positions reduced, while the Hot Rolled Coil 05 contract saw both long and short positions reduced among the top twenty positions, with a larger reduction in long positions, indicating that bullish sentiment remains weak. Overall, the peak demand season has not yet materialized. In the short term, the market may fluctuate with cost changes and should be approached with a slightly bullish but oscillating mindset. It is not advisable to chase the rally, and attention should be paid to volatility risks caused by crude oil disturbances. (2) Iron Ore: Global shipments declined week-on-week, while arrivals at ports rebounded. With steel mills resuming production slowly, port inventories remain high, but after major meetings, expectations for steel mills to restock may rise. Coupled with ongoing uncertainties in negotiations over mineral resources with BHP, short-term support for ore prices remains strong. In terms of capital flows, both long and short positions among the top twenty positions in the 05 contract were reduced, with a larger reduction in long positions, suggesting some funds may be taking profits. Technically, the market continues to rebound with reduced positions, having broken through the 40-day and 60-day moving averages, with resistance at the 800 round number above. Overall, the marginal improvement in iron ore supply and demand is evident, but the rebound space is still limited under the overall loose supply pattern. Considering that steel mills are expected to accelerate resumption of production and marginal demand improvement, the iron ore 5-9 spread can continue to be held. (3) Coking Coal: Most coal mines maintain normal production, the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and downstream procurement remains cautious. Recently, the sharp rise in oil prices has boosted market sentiment. In terms of capital flows, both long and short positions among the top twenty positions in the Coking Coal 05 contract were reduced, with a larger reduction in short positions. Technically, the 05 contract broke through the 40-day moving average and held above the moving average cluster, suggesting a short-term slightly bullish oscillation. Overall, with energy premiums and rising shipping costs, coupled with new demand from coal chemicals, raw coal valuation has moved higher. With the market trading at a premium, a short-term long strategy on pullbacks can be maintained, but it is not advisable to chase highs, and attention should be paid to the risk of sentiment cooling in crude oil. (4) Coke: Benefiting from raw material cost concessions, coke producers' profits have improved significantly, and production remains stable. On the demand side, steel mills are resuming production slowly, limiting rigid demand for coke. After the first round of spot price cuts, another round of price cuts is still expected. In terms of valuation, the 05 contract is trading at a premium to spot, and with expectations of further price cuts, the valuation is slightly high. Overall, coke lacks its own drivers, and its trend is still led by coking coal costs. (5) Silico-manganese: Manganese ore shipments continue to rebound, and port inventories have turned lower week-on-week; manufacturers' operating rates have slightly increased, and declining plant inventories may indicate improving demand. However, after the market rises, factories' willingness to hedge at high prices has increased. In terms of capital flows, both long and short positions among the top twenty positions in the SM05 contract were reduced, with a larger reduction in long positions.