Rystad sounds the alarm: If supply disruption lasts for four months, Brent oil will surge to $135.

(1) Energy consulting firm Rystad Energy has released its latest scenario forecast, revealing the potential impact path of the Middle East conflict on oil prices. Janiv Shah, Vice President of Oil Markets at the firm, pointed out that the current market focus has completely shifted to national energy security, making oil prices a very real threat to global stability. (2) In a more optimistic scenario, if the supply disruption lasts only two months, Brent crude oil prices are expected to rise above $110 per barrel in April. Subsequently, as supply gradually returns to normal, oil prices will fluctuate downward, falling to around $70 by the end of the year. Based on this trajectory, the average oil price for the entire year of 2026 would be about $87 per barrel. (3) If the conflict continues to escalate, causing supply disruptions to last as long as four months, the oil price trajectory will be even steeper. Rystad predicts that in this scenario, Brent crude oil prices will soar to around $135 per barrel in May. Although prices may fall back to around $85 by the end of the year as market supply and demand rebalance, the duration of high oil prices will be significantly extended. (4) Institutional analysis suggests that Rystad's scenario analysis reveals the double-tail risks facing the market: short-term shocks are manageable, but long-term supply disruptions will trigger violent reactions. In either scenario, geopolitical premiums have systematically raised the central level of oil prices, and global inflation and economic growth will pay the price for this.