贝莱德推出美国大型股ETF，押注大公司将持续主导市场

Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.

BlackRock has introduced an ETF called iShares S&P 500 Top 20 UCITS ETF, which allows European investors to invest in large US stocks at a lower cost. The fund has a fee rate of 0.2% and will be listed on the London Stock Exchange, Euronext Amsterdam, and Xetra.

At the launch of this fund, BlackRock's portfolio managers expressed a positive view of the US stock market at the outlook forum for 2025 held by the company last week. Despite the seemingly high valuation of US stocks, BlackRock's managers believe that US exceptionalism, strong economic and corporate earnings growth, will continue to have greater potential.

Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, stated that "The US situation contrasts sharply with the sluggish economic growth and stock performance in Europe."

Artificial intelligence (AI) has been a key factor driving major tech giants to the top of the S&P 500 index. Boivin said, "The long-term economic impact of quantified AI remains challenging, but we believe AI may eventually reshape the economy and promote economic growth."

AI is also a major reason why BlackRock is increasing its holdings in US stocks. Boivin mentioned, "As tech companies continue to surpass high revenue expectations, the valuations of AI beneficiaries are supported." "Decreasing inflation is alleviating pressure on corporate profit margins."

The company is also seeking investment opportunities in AI beneficiaries outside the technology industry.

BlackRock is not the only company bullish on the prospects of US stocks. Bank of America Securities conducted a survey of global fund managers last week following Donald Trump's victory in the election, with 43% predicting that US stocks will be the best-performing asset class next year.

Trump's victory greatly shook people's emotions. In a similar survey conducted by Bank of America before the election, 27% of the 213 respondents predicted that the US will outperform other countries next year.

Survey: Which asset class is expected to perform the best in 2025?

This confidence was reflected in the stock market, as the US stock market saw its largest weekly gain of the year last week. Boivin said, "Despite lingering uncertainty over midterm policies, the market welcomes the decisive outcomes that eliminate some short-term uncertainties."

At the beginning of November, a net 4% of fund managers told Bank of America that they expect a global economic slowdown. However, after the presidential election, a net 23% of the respondents said they anticipate a global economic recovery, the most optimistic result since August 2021.

A global fund manager survey released by Bank of America yesterday shows that increasing shareholding of the "Big Seven" US stocks remains the most crowded trade in the fund management industry. This trade has been very profitable. BlackRock's data shows that over the past three years, the 20 largest companies in the S&P 500 index contributed more than two-thirds (68%) of the index's returns.

Survey: What is currently considered the most crowded trade by fund managers?

To further illustrate the dominance of mega-corporations, the combined market capitalization of the eight largest publicly traded companies in the US currently stands at $15 trillion—equivalent to the total market cap of the entire US stock market in the year 2000.

However, the relative performance trajectory of large-cap and small-cap stocks may quickly change. Small-cap stocks have gained strong returns in the post-election rebound, with Trump's 'America First' policy and regulatory relaxation expected to benefit small businesses focused on the domestic market.

Survey: net % of fund managers believe that small-cap stocks will outperform large-cap stocks.

After the election, a net 35% of fund managers told Bank of America that they expect small-cap stocks to outperform large-cap stocks, the highest level since February 2021. In early November, a net 3% of fund managers said they expect small-cap stocks to outperform large-cap stocks.

Editor / jayden