Gold climbs amid heightened geopolitical tensions boosting safe-haven appeal, though a strong US dollar curbs further advances.

Gold Price Steadies as Geopolitical Tensions Persist

The price of Gold (XAU/USD) continued its upward momentum during Tuesday’s Asian trading session, extending the recovery that began after the metal approached the significant $5,000 threshold. This renewed demand for gold is largely driven by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, as Iranian leaders dismissed US President Donald Trump’s comments about a swift resolution to the Middle East conflict, insisting that regional security must be universal or absent for all. Additionally, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps emphasized that Tehran, not Washington, will dictate when hostilities conclude. These developments have kept safe-haven assets like gold in favor among investors.

Oil Prices Rebound Amid Supply Concerns

Crude oil prices also regained strength after a sharp reversal from their highest levels since June 2022, fueled by fears of supply interruptions following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Market participants are increasingly concerned that persistently high energy costs could stoke inflation, potentially prompting the US Federal Reserve to postpone any interest rate reductions. As a result, US Treasury yields remain elevated, supporting the US Dollar and limiting gold’s ability to break above the $5,200 mark.

Investors Await Key US Inflation Data

Given the mixed economic signals, traders are exercising caution before making bold moves on XAU/USD. Attention now turns to upcoming US inflation reports, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for release on Wednesday and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index due Friday. These reports are expected to significantly influence expectations for Fed policy changes and, consequently, demand for the US Dollar and gold. Meanwhile, developments in the US-Israel conflict with Iran remain a central focus for the markets.

XAU/USD 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Gold’s Next Move Hinges on Breaking Out of Current Range

From a technical standpoint, gold has been trading within a defined range over the past week, consistently finding support just above the rising 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, currently near $5,010. This level aligns with the lower boundary of the trading range and serves as a crucial reference point for short-term traders.

Momentum indicators are signaling a potential shift higher. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive and remains above its signal line, with a growing positive histogram indicating strengthening upward momentum after a period of consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits slightly above 50, suggesting that bullish pressure is building without the market being overbought.

The near-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic as long as gold prices stay above the $5,010 support, preserving the broader upward trend. Initial support is seen around the recent swing area near $5,140, with the 200-period EMA acting as a deeper safety net.

On the upside, immediate resistance is found near the recent highs at $5,190, where previous rallies have stalled. Should buyers push beyond this level, the next target is $5,230. A sustained move above $5,140 would reinforce the bullish scenario, while a drop below $5,010 could signal a shift toward a corrective phase and weaken the positive outlook.

Note: This technical analysis was generated with the assistance of AI tools.