"Israel and the US Can No Longer End the War at Will," Iran Proposes Ceasefire Conditions

As multinational diplomatic mediation intensifies, Iran has set out its ceasefire terms, while warning that passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be regulated, introducing new uncertainty into the energy market.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kalibabadi stated that Tehran’s primary condition for a ceasefire is that “there will be no further acts of aggression,” and revealed that several countries, including Russia, have contacted Iran to promote a ceasefire. Meanwhile, the head of Iran’s highest military command issued a tough statement, declaring that the United States and Israel "can no longer start or end wars at will," showing Tehran’s hardline stance despite the unclear outlook for negotiations.

The Iranian ambassador to China further stated that passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be subject to control—though he emphasized this does not amount to closing the strait. This stance poses a potential threat to the global energy supply chain and may heighten expectations for oil price volatility.

Primary Ceasefire Condition: No Further Acts of Aggression

Kalibabadi stated that while global leaders are engaged in intensive diplomatic efforts, Iran has made it clear that "halting further aggression" is a precondition for initiating a ceasefire. He added that several countries, including Russia, have proactively contacted Iran seeking to cool the situation.

On a bilateral level, Iranian President Pezeshkian told Turkish President Erdogan that Iran is prepared to reduce regional tensions, provided that the airspace, territory, and waters of neighboring countries are not used for attacks against Iran.

The Kremlin also stated on the 9th that Russian President Putin had a phone call with U.S. President Trump to discuss the situation in Iran, during which Putin offered suggestions for ending the hostilities surrounding Iran as soon as possible.

On March 10, the commander of Iran’s highest military command center, "Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command," Abdullahi, issued a strongly worded statement. He said, "Today, the U.S. and Israel can no longer start wars at will, nor can they end wars at will."

Abdullahi also warned that Iran would not waver in its resolve due to "psychological warfare and lies," and said, "The war will not stop, and the will of our leaders, people, and army to take revenge on our mortal enemies is stronger than ever before."

“Three-Step” Roadmap and Risks of Strait Control

On March 9 local time, U.S. President Trump stated that the U.S. operation in Iran would end "soon," but "not" this week.

At a press conference held at a golf club in Miami, Florida, Trump said that oil prices "have not risen as much as he feared," but that the U.S. is temporarily waiving some oil-related sanctions to ensure ample oil supply and reduce prices. 

The Iranian ambassador to China proposed a "three-step" framework to help de-escalate the situation:

The first step is to end the war and achieve a ceasefire, and the party that started the war should stop first. It is therefore necessary to take action to force the U.S. and Israel to immediately halt all military attacks;

The second step is to return to the negotiating table, but since we no longer trust the U.S., this step is difficult to achieve and almost impossible unless world powers and the UN Security Council can intervene in the negotiations, play an active role, and provide binding and inviolable assurances to ensure no acts of aggression happen during the dialogue, while also establishing a long-term and dependable mechanism for upholding the negotiation outcomes;

Thirdly, all countries must unite and cooperate to jointly resist unilateralism and promote the development of multilateralism.

“On the basis of fully respecting and implementing the above principles, we are willing to resume relevant dialogue,” said Ambassador Fazli.

Of interest to the market, the ambassador made it clear that passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be "regulated." The Strait of Hormuz is a vital chokepoint for global oil transport, with a significant proportion of the world’s crude oil passing through daily. Although the ambassador emphasized this does not mean the closure of the strait, the mere mention of "regulation" is enough to prompt the energy market to reprice the risks of supply disruption.