Bernstein sees 70% upside for Circle as stablecoin adoption expands across payments and AI

Shares of Circle Internet Group (CRCL) climbed sharply above $110 on Monday, reaching their highest level since early November, as Bernstein analysts highlighted accelerating adoption of stablecoins for "humans, enterprise, and potentially AI agents."

CRCL jumped 9.74% to close at $111.84 on Monday, according to The Block's CRCL price page. Bernstein analysts renewed their bullish case in a Tuesday report for the stablecoin issuer with an "outperform" rating and a $190 price target — implying roughly 70% upside from Monday's closing price.

The analysts suggested that stablecoins are increasingly diverging from the broader crypto market cycle and that stablecoin adoption has remained resilient even during periods of volatility in the crypto market. 

While USDC supply briefly declined after an October liquidity event and broader market correction, it has since rebounded to about $78 billion in circulation, reaching new highs despite bitcoin still trading significantly below its previous peak, the analysts said. Meanwhile, Tether's USDT supply stands at about $184 billion.

Transaction activity

Total stablecoin transaction volume hit $55 trillion in 2025, up 98% year-over-year, while the adjusted figure — which strips out bots and high-frequency trading — reached $11 trillion, growing 91%, according to the report. 

Such growth has been driven by increasing payment activity and faster transaction velocity, meaning each unit of stablecoin is circulating more frequently. Payment activity alone totaled roughly $375 billion in 2025, up 76% from the previous year, with consumer-to-business payments surging 131%. 

The analysts argued that the data points to a structural shift in how stablecoins are used. "Stablecoin adoption has remained persistent independent of crypto market sentiment," Bernstein wrote, pointing to the asset class's growing role as "global digital dollar banking" infrastructure with increasing payments utility.

Cross-border use cases

Bernstein noted that the most successful consumer payment model so far combines stablecoin rails with traditional card networks. Visa now supports more than 130 stablecoin-linked cards across 50 countries, processing roughly $4.6 billion in annualized settlement volume, the report said. 

Circle is also expanding its infrastructure to support cross-border payments through the Circle Payments Network, which enables institutions and fintech platforms to send USDC transfers that can be converted into local currency payouts through regulated partners.

The network currently supports corridors across regions, including the EU, Singapore, India, the Philippines, and the United States, with about 55 institutions enrolled and an annualized volume of $5.7 billion as of February 2026, per the report.

Internet-native payments

Looking further ahead, Bernstein highlighted emerging opportunities such as machine-to-machine payments for AI agents, which could rely on stablecoins to facilitate micropayments for APIs and digital services.

"We believe Circle is a long-term category winner," the analysts said, citing its regulatory positioning, exchange partnerships, and growing global payments network.

As stablecoins evolve beyond trading liquidity into payments and financial services, Bernstein argued that companies like Circle could emerge as key providers of the internet's next generation of money rails.

Bernstein and its affiliates have received compensation for investment banking and other services from Circle and have had an investment banking client relationship with the company in the past 12 months. Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies.