Dow Jones Industrial Average rises as oil prices plunge on hopes for easing Iran pressure

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to retest chart territory north of 48,000 on Tuesday, building on Monday's dramatic reversal. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both gained ground as well as equity markets execute a broad turnaround. Trading was choppy throughout the session, with the Dow falling as much as 300 points at its lows before recovering. The comeback was driven largely by a sharp retreat in Crude Oil prices as traders grow hopeful that the US-Iran conflict may be approaching its end, and as the International Energy Agency (IEA) convened an emergency meeting to discuss a coordinated release of strategic crude reserves.

Oil prices retreat as IEA weighs emergency stockpile release

Crude Oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday, pulling back from levels that had topped $100 a barrel earlier in the week. West Texas Intermediate futures were last down around 10% to trade near $84 a barrel, while Brent crude shed a similar amount to roughly $88. The decline came after the IEA called a meeting of its more than 30 member countries to assess whether to make emergency stockpiles available to offset supply disruptions caused by the conflict. The move followed comments from President Trump on Monday suggesting the war was "very complete, pretty much," although Iranian authorities signaled they were prepared to continue fighting. Despite the pullback, Oil remains well above pre-war levels and the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global crude flows, remains effectively closed.

Industrials lead Dow gainers while software and healthcare lag

Caterpillar (CAT) led the Dow higher with a gain of more than 3%, extending its strong 2026 run. The heavy equipment maker has benefited from robust demand tied to AI data center construction and infrastructure spending. Cisco (CSCO) also outperformed, rising around 1.7% on the session. On the downside, Salesforce (CRM) was among the biggest laggards, falling roughly 3% amid broader concerns about enterprise software spending. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) dropped around 1.7%, acting as a significant drag on the price-weighted index. International Business Machines (IBM) also declined over 2%, continuing a weak stretch for the stock which is down more than 11% year-to-date.

Existing home sales beat expectations on lower mortgage rates

Existing home sales unexpectedly rose 1.7% month-over-month in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million units, according to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released Tuesday. The result easily topped the consensus estimate of 3.89 million units. January's figure was also revised higher to 4.02 million from the previously reported 3.91 million pace. The rebound was supported by lower mortgage rates and a moderation in house-price growth, with the 30-year fixed rate averaging around 6% last week. NAR's Housing Affordability Index edged up to 117.6, its highest level since March 2022. However, the spike in Oil prices since the start of the Iran war has pushed Treasury yields higher, which could feed through to higher mortgage rates just as the spring buying season gets underway.

Gold rallies as safe-haven demand holds firm

Gold futures rose to around $5,195 per ounce on Tuesday, benefiting from continued safe-haven demand as geopolitical uncertainty lingered. The US Dollar weakened, with the Dollar Index falling around 0.5% to 98.66, providing an additional tailwind for bullion. Silver also surged, jumping around 5.5% on the day. The precious metals rally came despite the broader pullback in Oil, suggesting that markets are not yet fully convinced that the Iran conflict will resolve quickly. Treasury yields edged lower, with the 10-year yield slipping to around 4.12%.

Consumer Price Index data due Wednesday

Markets are now turning their attention to Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February, due at 12:30 p.m. GMT. Economists expect headline CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month, up from 0.2% in January, with the year-over-year figure expected to hold steady at 2.4%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is forecast at 0.2% to 0.3% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year. Crucially, the February data was collected before the Iran war began and will not reflect the recent surge in energy prices. That impact is expected to show up in March and April readings. With roughly 97% of market participants pricing in unchanged rates at the Federal Reserve's (Fed) March meeting, the CPI print is unlikely to shift the near-term policy outlook, but it will provide an important baseline ahead of what could be a more volatile inflation picture in the months ahead.

Dow Jones daily chart