Why Has Ford Motor (F) Dropped 12.6% Since Its Previous Earnings Announcement?

Ford Motor Company: Recent Performance and Earnings Overview

Over the past month, Ford Motor Company (F) has seen its stock price decline by approximately 12.6%, trailing behind the S&P 500's performance during the same period.

This downward trend has left investors questioning whether the slump will persist ahead of the next earnings announcement or if a turnaround is on the horizon. Before examining recent analyst and investor sentiment, let's review the latest quarterly results to better understand the key factors at play.

Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Highlights

For the fourth quarter of 2025, Ford reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.13, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.17 and marking a decrease from $0.39 in the same quarter last year. The company posted total revenues of $45.9 billion for the quarter, representing a 4.8% year-over-year decline. Automotive revenues reached $42.5 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $41.2 billion but still lower than the $44.9 billion reported a year earlier.

Performance by Segment

• Ford Blue: Wholesale volume dropped 8% year over year to 712,000 units, though this exceeded the consensus estimate of 637,000 units. Segment revenue decreased 4% to $26.2 billion but topped expectations due to stronger-than-anticipated sales. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) were $727 million, below the projected $779 million, with an EBIT margin of 2.8%, down three percentage points from the prior year.
• Ford Model e: Wholesale volume remained steady at 37,000 units, missing the estimate of 40,160 units. Revenue fell 7.1% to $1.3 billion but surpassed the expected $1.22 billion. The segment posted a pre-tax loss of $1.22 billion, which was less than the anticipated $1.39 billion loss.
• Ford Pro: Wholesale volume declined 11% to 334,000 units, underperforming the estimate of 345,000 units. Revenue dropped 8% to $14.9 billion, missing the $15.04 billion estimate. EBIT was $1.23 billion with an 8.2% margin, below the expected $1.43 billion.
• Ford Credit: Revenue increased 4.2% year over year to $3.4 billion, slightly above the $3.44 billion estimate. Pretax earnings surged 55% to approximately $2.6 billion.

Financial Standing

During the quarter, Ford reported a negative adjusted free cash flow of $2.14 billion. As of December 31, 2025, the company held $23.36 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Long-term debt, excluding Ford Credit, stood at $16.37 billion at year-end.

Forecast for 2026

Looking ahead, Ford anticipates adjusted EBIT for the full year 2026 to range between $8 billion and $10 billion, up from $6.78 billion in 2025. The company also expects adjusted free cash flow to improve to $5–$6 billion, compared to $3.5 billion in the previous year. Planned capital expenditures are projected to be between $9.5 billion and $10.5 billion.

Recent Estimate Revisions

Over the past month, analyst estimates for Ford have generally moved lower. The consensus estimate has decreased by 29.75% during this period.

VGM Score Breakdown

Ford currently holds a Growth Score of C and a Momentum Score of F, indicating weaker performance in these areas. However, the company excels in value, earning an A and placing it among the top 20% for value-focused strategies. Overall, Ford's VGM Score is a B, making it a solid choice for investors seeking a balanced approach.

Investment Outlook

Despite the downward trend in estimates, Ford Motor holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), suggesting the potential for above-average returns in the coming months.