Viewpoint: Under the impact of oil prices, bitcoin is unlikely to become a safe-haven asset in the short term; if oil prices remain high, bitcoin may fall to $50,000–$58,000.

BlockBeats News, March 13, Forbes analysis pointed out that in the context of oil price shocks triggered by geopolitical conflicts, bitcoin usually struggles to serve as a safe-haven asset in the short term. Historical data shows that whether oil prices plummet or surge above $100, bitcoin tends to face downward pressure, though the pace of decline varies.

The report states that when oil prices soar, it often means rising inflationary pressure and forces central banks to maintain high interest rates, thereby weakening the appeal of risk assets including bitcoin. Currently, against the backdrop of escalating conflict in Iran, international oil prices have once again risen above $100, while bitcoin is trading around $70,000, having retreated about 45% from its all-time high of $126,000 set in October 2025.

The analysis suggests that if oil prices remain above $100 for an extended period, bitcoin could further decline by 15%—25%, with its price range possibly dropping to $50,000–$58,000; if the conflict escalates and pushes oil prices to $130–$140, bitcoin may fall to the $40,000–$45,000 range.

However, the report also notes that from a historical cycle perspective, macro crises are often eventually accompanied by fiscal stimulus and liquidity expansion. Once oil prices fall and monetary policy turns dovish, bitcoin typically experiences a larger-scale rebound. If oil prices drop below $80 within a few months, bitcoin is expected to start recovering by the end of 2026 and challenge levels above $100,000 in the subsequent cycle.